Prediction Of Water Consumption Midst Of Urbanization In Kashgar District, Xinjiang

There is a close relationship between urbanization and the utilization of water resources. The interaction between them is shown in :first,Direct expression on the urbanization through the growth of urban population, economic development, the expansion of construction land, the upgrading of the industrial structure, resource consumption, etc,and this causes the water resources system to produce stress or pressure. Regional water use, water use, water use efficiency and other aspects of change, and then put forward the requirement of limited development and utilization to the regional development. On the other hand, Optimization of urban water use structure and improvement of management mode in the development of Urbanization, improvement of water use efficiency. The quantity, quality and distribution of water resources around urban peripheral area will have an impact on the process of Urbanization, such as population size, industrial development and other aspects of the layout, especially drought and water shortage area is obvious. Urbanization is a process of rapid development and change, the quantity and quality of water resources in the city from the need to consider this problem, effects of changes in water resources systems that have already occurred, also to consider the future of urban resources. The arid area of southern Xinjiang is in the process of urbanization, water resources become an important factor to determine the speed and scale of urbanization.This paper takes the Kashgar district of Xinjiang as the research area, theory and research results of the relationship between urbanization and water resources at home and abroad, combining the original qualitative and quantitative research methods with the GIS Technology, quantitative analysis of Kashgar district, reveal the change law of urbanization with water resources, further analysis on the characteristics of the interaction between urbanization and water resources in Kashgar district, law and mechanism, to predict the water consumption in the process of urbanization in different speed, and put forward the model of the harmonious development of the two. In order to promote the harmonious development of urbanization and water resources utilization in Kashgar district, the quantitative decision-making basis is provided.First of all, the development trend of urbanization from 2002 to 2012 in Kashgar district is analyzed from the whole region and the city and county, Comparative analysis of urbanization rate historical data and the trend of non agricultural population in urban population. Analysis of surface water and groundwater resources in the region and the types of water resources utilization, comparative historical data, with the aid of GIS technology to the city and county as a unit, comparative analysis on the type of water resources utilization. By using gray correlation analysis method in Kashgar district the development of urbanization and water resources utilization structure between the calculated correlation analysis, urbanization rate, per capita GDP, the proportion of the two or three industry, disposable income of urban residents are the main factors that determine the amount of water resources.According to the variation of water resource in the urbanization process of Kashgar prefecture,this paper predict the next 30 years water consumption and water use efficiency of the industrial structures by using system dynamics theory, simulation technology as well as the statistical data between 2002-2010. Through simulation,To better understand the prediction of water resources to urbanization, we design low, medium and high speed mode of urbanization. Results show that : ① Kashgar prefecture suitable for taking medium speed mode of urbanization;②In the water resources using types agricultural water consumption remain greater, according to the characteristics of the Kashgar district water resource utilization structure, need to vigorously promote agricultural water saving and improving irrigation water use coefficient. Through analysis, adjust the relationship of urbanization development speed with quality than be able to guarantee Sustainable utilization of water resources in the urbanization process.