Research On Credit Risk Of P2P Network Loan

P2P(Online Peer to Peer Lending), which is known as “Ren-Ren loans”,is a new network business model. it’s a medium connecting the needs and theproviders of funds. Essentially, P2P are standardized, scaled and innovation ofprivate lending. It has experienced a rapid development since its first set inChina, besides, it’s different from the traditional commercial bank loans andprivate borrowing.P2P meets the needs of both lenders and borrowers,and isimportant to ease the financing difficulties of SMEs,as well as expendchannels for invest.However,2013saw the collapse wave of P2P platforms,which attractspeople’s attention. Credit risk causing by asymmetric information,is one ofthe most important risks among the different risks, so this article will mainlytalk about the credit risk.The main models of P2P Lending can be divided into3categories, first is the Unsecured-Unguaranteed,which is represented byPaiPai Dai;the second category is Unsecured-Guaranteed,likeCreditEase,Hongling venture capital and ChangDai; the last category isSecured-Guaranteed,RenRenDai in Qingdao district is the representative.Among them,the Unsecured-Unguaranteed is credit loans essentially,so itfaces much more risk,this article will focus on the credit risk of this kind ofP2P Lending platform.In general,the credit risk analysis methods is consist of the traditionalmethod and the modern method,the tradition method includes the expertanalysis method and the feature analysis. And the modern method can bedivided into Discriminant analysis, Logit and Probit regression model, neuralnetwork model, KMV model, Credit Metrics model, CreditRisk+model,Credit Protfolio View model. Based on the comparison of various types of credit risk analysis methods, this paper select the multiple regression model toanalysis the credit risk of P2P Lending.This paper take the “blacklist” of PaiPaiDai as the data source. Through aseries of work out,the principal component analysis and the correlationtest,we come up with a credit risk measure model.At last,based on the status of P2P Lending and the regulatory in US andUK,as well as the current situation,we propose the following advices:Improving the information disclosure system, Improving the creditsystem,clearing the regulatory and strengthening the self-discipline, as well asstrengthening the protection of investors and borrowers.