| In1998, China began to implement the housing commercialization reform, after a dozen years of rapid development, China’s real estate industry has been a hot trend.In early2010, the Government started a new round of harsh regulation, our country’s real estate financial market were hiding the significant risk, thus influencing factors on the current real estate financial risk analysis is essential to take active measures targeted prevention and control of the risks of real estate financing is imminent.Influencing factors of financial risk of real estate in China is multifaceted, many factors may magnify the effect of the outbreak of the financial risk. This article from the main participating institutions-commercial banks and real estate developers, real estate market operation and real estate policy regulation and other related factors, and take market quantitative analysis methods to explore the commercial real-estate loans, banks’ non-performing loans, financing for development enterprise (domestic loans; corporate self-financing; other capital sources), the real estate market-related factors (investment in real estate development; floor space of commercial housing under construction; floor space of commercial housing completed; Sales of commercial housing area and commercial housing sales price), and other key indicators on the impact of financial risk of real estate in China.This article main on real estate financial risk between market factors indicators and development capital sources indicators to make the relevant analysis, research found:(1) banks’non-performing loans and market factors indicators (investment in real estate development; floor space of commercial housing under construction; floor space of commercial housing completed; Sales of commercial housing area and commercial housing sales price) showed significant negative correlation related, and commercial real estate loan and and market factors indicators showed significant positive correlation.(2)Banks’ non-performing loans and real estate enterprises in real estate development financing indicators (domestic loans, funds from enterprises and other sources) showed a significant negative correlation and sources of commercial real estate loans and real estate development indicators showed a significant positive correlation. Then to further investigation of correlative factors impact on financial risk of real estate, verify using stepwise regression method, finally indicated: commercial housing sales price and other capital sources larger influence over banks’non-performing loans, particularly commercial housing sales price. Under the influence of policy, commercial housing sales price go into the downward path, banks’non-performing loans will increase, and trust funds and private capital funds that real estate companies have relyed on will also increase banks’non-performing loans, eventually lead to the real estate financial risk exposure. And floor space of commercial housing under construction has a decisive impact on commercial real estate loans. We need to pay close attention to changes in these factors, starting from these indicators, prevent and control the financial risk of real estate in China. |
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