Analysis On The Factors Affecting The Default Of Small Micro - Enterprise Loan

Small and micro enterprises(SME) is an important foundation force to the national economy and social development, it plays an important role to ease the employment pressure, increase the national income, and improve people’s livelihood,also promote national stability, increase state tax revenue and activate market economy. However, as we all know, due to small-scale, information asymmetric and lack of collateral etc, small and micro enterprises is very difficult to obtain bank loans. In order to enhance the enthusiasm of the commercial banks to lend to small and micro enterprises, and alse in order to solve the problem of small micro-enterprise credit, we need to find out the impact on default risk of small and micro enterprise loan.Through investigation on a domestic commercial bank,the author collected the data of SME’s loan, apply the international popular Logistic regression model, from the aspect of enterprise ownership, loan features, characteristics of business executives, industry characteristics and firm characteristics, to analyze the impact on SME’s loan default risk. The empirical conclusion shows that:types of bank loans has an significantly affect on SME’s default risk, liquid capital loans has higher default probability than international trade loans and guarantee class loans; general service has a significant impact on SME’s loans default risk; corporation’s credit rating class has a significant impact on default risk, the higher the credit rating class, the smaller the probability of default risk; corporate ownership type is relevant to SME’s loan default risk, the probability of default of the non-state-owned economic enterprises is lower than the state-owned economic enterprises; the sex of SME’s owners has weak effect on the deflaut risk,the probability of loan default risk of male is higher than the probability of default of female; due to the impact of the bank credit policy on SME, the term of the loan, the loan interest rate is not relevant to default risk; the scale of SME, loan amount,the age of SME’s owners and public utilities industry is not relevant the loan default risk.Finally, based on empirical results, the author put forward some policy recommendations from the commercial banking business point of view.