Price Fluctuation Of International Agricultural Products From The Perspective Of Finance And Its Impact On China

In recent years, international agricultural prices staged a thrilling "roller coaster", especially rice, wheat, soybeans,and corn. The traditional supply and demand is difficult to fully reflect the fluctuations of agricultural prices,while financial factors(include dollar exchange rate, money supply, the price of crude oil, speculative positions and so on) affect agricultural market structure gradually. On the background of continued marketization and expanding opening to the outside, the international agricultural financialization has affected our country’s agricultural market through the path of trade,money, foreign exchange and futures. So the research of international agricultural financialization has important practical significance to our country government. It helps our government foster good agricultural products market mechanism, use financial derivatives to avoid risk, formulate scientific and effective regulation policy of agricultural products price.First of all, the article reviews some relevant theories and organize the related literature from two aspects of the traditional and new factors of the cause of the fluctuations of agricultural prices. Then the article carries on the detailed theoretical analysis from the four aspects of the definition, reason, performance of the international agricultural financialization and the inner mechanism of the impact of international agricultural financialization on the agricultural product price fluctuation. Finally, the article establishes a time series econometric model, demonstrating the financialization of international agricultural products. The empirical results show that there exists a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the international agricultural prices, the dollar exchange rate, money supply, price of crude oil and the speculative position; International agricultural prices have already deviated from the supply and demand, but depend on the financial factors; In the short term, the dollar exchange rate and money supply have a negative impact on the international agricultural prices, the price of crude oil and speculative factors have a positive impact on the international agricultural prices. The article also analyses the effects of international agricultural financialization on agricultural products market in China,pointing out that the international agricultural financialization has brought not only opportunities but also challenges to us. Only to adapt to and integrate into the trend of financialization of agricultural products,making the use of the capital in financial markets, China’s agriculture can develop healthly and safely, the food safety can be secured.The main characteristics and contributions of this paper are below: Firstly is the research perspective. It emphatically analyzes the financial factors causing the fluctuation of international agricultural prices. Secondly is the method of research, it combine the normative analysis and empirical analysis method, not only make the theory more accurate, but also demonstrate the financialization phenomenon in international agricultural prices. Finally is the content of the research, it’s more comprehensive and systematic.