Analysis Of The Fluctuation And Mechanism Of My Country's Agricultural Product Prices Under The Influence Of Financial Factors

The 21 st century is the golden age of the rapid development of financial markets.Thanks to the progress of Internet technology,the time lag of market information transmission has been greatly shortened.Stocks,futures,foreign exchange and energy markets have been developed greatly,and the trend of financial integration has become more and more obvious.Under this trend,more and more financial capital is pouring into the agricultural products,energy,gold and other commodity markets.While promoting the prosperity and development of agricultural products market,the influence on agricultural prices is also increasing.So far,although the price of agricultural products is still affected to some extent by traditional factors such as production costs,climate,policy and so on,it is undeniable that the financial factors are increasingly influencing agricultural products,and the financial attributes of agricultural products are significant.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between financial factors and price fluctuation of agricultural products.Firstly,this paper combs the theory of static and dynamic price fluctuation of agricultural products and the related research literature of agricultural prices.On this basis,it further elaborates the concepts of financialization and agricultural products financialization,as well as its causes and specific manifestations.Secondly,by drawing scatter plots of fluctuations of domestic agricultural prices and international agricultural prices,speculation,inflation,interest rates,energy,currency and exchange rates,we have a basic understanding of the fluctuations of various factors in recent decades,and analyze the correlation between various factors and domestic agricultural prices and Granger causality one by one.Finally,considering that international agricultural product prices are related to various factors,their impact is more complex and important,so empirical analysis is carried out on the relationship between domestic and foreign agricultural product prices and the impact of other six financial factors on agricultural product prices.The former carries out periodic and seasonal analysis according to the actual situation of agricultural product data at home and abroad,and studies the long-term and short-term relationship between them on the basis of descriptive statistics;the latter carries out data stationarity,impulse response and variance decomposition test analysis based on cointegration test and VAR model from the perspectives of impact strength and duration.The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly,there is a significant correlationbetween the financial variables and domestic agricultural prices,and the absolute value of the correlation coefficients of international prices,inflation,exchange rates and monetary factors are more than 0.9.Secondly,in causality test,each factor is the Granger cause of domestic price change rate,among which international price,interest rate and inflation change rate are mutually causal.Thirdly,in the long run,there is a co-integration relationship between the above factors and the prices of agricultural products.Besides the negative correlation between exchange rate and prices of agricultural products,other factors are positively correlated with prices of agricultural products in the long run.Fourthly,domestic and international agricultural products have significant seasonality and periodicity in price fluctuation,and the regularity of periodic fluctuation is consistent.Fifth,in terms of short-term dynamic relationship,the impulse response of domestic agricultural product price growth rate to inflation,speculation and exchange rate fluctuation rate is larger,while the short-term impact of interest rate and energy price volatility is relatively small.From the perspective of the contribution rate of volatility,the sum of six financial factors contributed 20% in the 10 th issue.The contribution rate of domestic agricultural price volatility to itself has been decreasing with the increase of time.The influence of financial factors is increasing.