| Real estate industry is the pillar industry of national economy in our country, due to the policy guidance and expectations, lasts hot real estate market, a large number of financial inflows into real estate industry, real estate industry become a windfall, speculative, house prices artificially high, bubble makes the real estate industry contains a huge risk, and bank credit is the main sources of funds for the real estate industry in our country, thus carries huge risks, the financial crisis triggered by the real estate industry in 2008 makes many scholars focus on China’s real estate finance. Entered since 2014, the real estate industry into an unprecedented predicament, in the third plenary session of the eighteenth bulletin, made no mention of the real estate regulation, make the development of the real estate industry into confusion, high interest rates, "restricted", "limit is borrowed" for the real estate industry, although later due to the increasing of financial risks makes policy water continuously, but the development direction of the real estate industry is worth our thinking.In this paper, the second chapter of the real estate industry and real estate finance, summarized the related theories and concepts, points out the close relationship between the real estate industry and real estate finance, as well as the related literature at home and abroad and the research results sorting, western views of different school of thought on the financial risk and judging theory, information economics and asset pricing theory and monetary socialist views on real estate finance, etc., the main research results on the basis of domestic and related degree in finishing, this paper also points out that the results of this study, the disadvantages of mining innovation point in this paper.In this paper, the third chapter comb the development course of China’s real estate market and real estate finance, reasonable division stage. This article will be the development of real estate and real estate finance is divided into four stages, namely the first stage(1978-1991), theoretical breakthrough and early stage; The second stage(1992-1997), to explore and practice stage; The third stage(1998-2007) of the real estate market development phase; The fourth stage(2008-2014), the real estate market regulation stage. And through the concrete data to explain our country real estate industry present situation: high prices, bubble generating and the bearing risk, high vacancy rates and a waste of resources; Real estate financial status: single source of funds and falling house prices caused by the imperfect financial risks, and other financing way.In this paper, the fourth chapter is mainly to our country real estate financial risk analysis, summarized our country real estate finance.The transmission mechanism of the risk, high housing prices lead to the expansion of bank credit, the credit expansion of the real estate bubble grows, fluctuations in the real estate industry increased the amount Banks to the real estate industry is not loans, bubble burst a full-blown financial crisis; China’s real estate financial risks are mainly caused by falling house prices reduce financial risk investment increase bank bad debts, the real estate industry profitability decline lead to financial risk.Turns in front of the seriousness of the real estate financial risk and financial risk of the real estate industry, in the fifth chapter, on the basis of previous analysis results, selection of real estate finance related indicators: commercial Banks non-performing loan balance of real estate industry and housing prices, the central bank benchmark lending interest rate, the rate of assets and liabilities of real estate enterprises, investment, real estate operating profit this year, the real estate industry domestic lending, select data from 2002-2013, to build the co-integration model using Eveiws regression, we found in the results, housing and real estate loans of commercial Banks domestic real estate industry the influence of bad loans is very weak, or can say there is little effect, the author for two reasonable explanation: data problem and people’s optimism. After stripping out price and real estate loans to build domestic cointegration model. We can know that, the loan interest rate, the real estate industry, asset-liability ratio, operating profit of the real estate industry and commercial bank non-performing loans outstanding direction change, and the real estate industry asset-liability ratio to its biggest effect; As completion of investment and commercial Banks non-performing loans this year balance reverse change. Chapter vi content based on the empirical research of real estate financial risks as a result, put forward the transformation direction of the development of the real estate industry in the next stage in our country, diversified development, market development, after to strengthen risk control and oversight mechanisms, innovative financial tools, broaden the financing channels, spread risk, etc. |
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