Research On Financial Distress Prediction Of China 's Real Estate Listed Companies Based On COX Model

After years of market development, China’s real estate industry has formed the scale of the real estate listed companies. The real estate industry itself has the nature of long cycle, high investment, high risk, etc., The industry’s operation involve the healthy development of national economy, so it’s always the focus of public opinion. Especially in recent years, the micro and macro regulation on the real estate industry make the industry’s implicit corresponding financial risk of listed companies. The warning and solving financial risk concern with the industry’s healthy and stable development of the national economy.This article reviews the research on Financial Distress home and abroad, through rational analysis of the characteristics of the real estate industry and to tap the sources of risk. Finally, the evaluation index system about the early warning of financial risk has been built, consistent with the characteristics of the industry by selecting a listed real estate companies in China as a sample. What’s more, the principal component analysis, wilCoxon nonparametric tests and correlation tests have been used to preprocess the sample data. Taking the dynamic principle into account, we have adopted Cox model to fit the data. So you can prevent a phenomenon that a single period model can not reflect the trends of financial position of the company. After a reasonable analysis, these six indicators of net profit margin, Asset-liability ratio, current ratio, interest earned ratio, the growth rate of total assets, ROA, sales margin can make a better early warning about China’s listed real estate company in financial distress. Then we make an appropriate reasonable explanation about the economic sense of these indicators, and put policy recommendations. The specific content of this article is divided into six chapters:Chapter1introduction, based on the background of selected topic, the paper puts forward the main problems, and gives the literature of domestic and foreign research present situation about COX model, financial early-warming and financial early-warning based on COX model, and finally determines the research framework and innovation point in this paper.Chapter2related basic theory research, through analyzing the corporate governance theory, theory of survival analysis, life cycle theory and financial early warning theory, the paper points out that the COX model of survival analysis has the applicability and superiority to the financial distress pre-warning.Chapter3the financial difficulties of real estate enterprise, the main analysis of the coming financial trouble of the real estate industry show great current significance of the research in this paper.Chapter4financial index designing of COX model, the paper selects suitable financial indicators for China’s real estate comprehensively, systematically, scientifically.Chapter5the application of COX model in the real estate industry in our country’s financial early-warning research, the paper constructs the COX model suitable to China’s real estate’s financial early-warning, and analyzes the empirical results for our country real estate enterprise financial early-warning.The sixth chapter research conclusion and limitations.