Research On Project Investment Decision - Making Based On Fuzzy Compound Real Option

In the context of the knowledge economy and innovation-driven development, with its decision-making system, the supply environment, production process technology, products, marketing do not have the advantage of emerging industries, manufacturing enterprises are facing tremendous pressure of economic transformation, restructuring. Lean management thought has a very significant effect on some traditional manufacturing companies over the world, some saved the survival, and some even to restore the entire national economy. Some of our manufacturing enterprises through learning and the foreign advanced management ideas, integrated lean thinking and continuous improvement into business operations transformation, construct the significant continuous improvement projects in order to optimize production processes,gradually change the functional style, extensive management mode which hinder their development and accelerate the operational transformation.These continuous improvement projects, from the beginning to the final implementation, are inseparable from the joint efforts of all levels of the staff, it’s the innovation results of full enterprise. While its life cycle is inherently includes a number of PDCA cycle to improve all aspects of its business, the performance is continuing and escalating. And significant continuous improvement projects is more of continuous improvement subprojects integrated configuration, it is not only important to change and optimize production processes and key performance,but also is characterized by more risk and investment,,multi-stage, strong uncertainty, it requires higher level of the business managers’ decision-making.Based on the needs of managers to improve the decision-making level of the significant continuous improvement projects, the paper studies the connotation and the life cycle of the project, discovers the inherent characteristics of real options, while traditional NPV method is difficult to measure the value of flexibility and is likely to cause wrong decisions. The paper believe that these problems can be effectively solved by the establishment of investment decision model based on fuzzy multiple real options, the result of case study shows that this method can effectively identify the value of project management flexibility, and fuzzy uncertainty has been better metered, it can truly reflect the investment value of the project so as to facilitate manager’s investment decision due diligence and also play certain reference in investment decisions which is similar the projects.