Credit Decision-making Research Of Real Estate Projects Based On Fuzzy Compound Options

With the changing of economic environment on real estate credit in recent years, particularly the release and implementation of stingy lending monetary policy, it raises higher request for commercial banks to achieve scientific and reasonable credit decisions, while the valuation of loan projects for bank credit management is the most basic and critical link.The investment of real estate projects is a dynamic process, with a long period, large capital input, high risks, complex environment and other characteristics. In the actual investment process of real estate projects for commercial banks, there are many factors of uncertainty and ambiguity from investment projects, periodicity and complex information asymmetry between banks and enterprises at the same time.Meanwhile, there are many factors involving in the credit investment of real estate projects from both macro and micro environment. The credit risk identification and early warning need to be made based on the evaluation of the projects in order to realize a good risk-averse to facilitate early investment, that is, take precautionary measures in the first place, and also to monitor the risk in the investment process.This paper studies the real estate credit investment from the viewpoint of commercial banks as a starting point, and discusses according to the three aspects below. First, get the initial value of the corporation and project using traditional project valuation theory and methods, and determine the discount rate by the improved CAPM. Second, establish real option pricing model based on the succession and improvements of traditional methods. And also, for the fuzziness and periodicity of construction projects, build fuzzy compound real option model of credit projects. Through the establishment and improvement of the loan project evaluation index system from commercial bank angle, and the qualitative and quantitative treatment for it, make further use of the combination between AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to get a comprehensive evaluation for credit projects as a confidence level of fuzzy compound options, so as to obtain the results based on a certain confidence degree which provides a more reliable and reasonable support for investment decision-making. Finally, using fuzzy variable model based on AHP to identify credit risk in the projects investment and achieve the early warning, so as to provide a reliable credit decisions proposal for management better, to take the credit investment management science.