Research On "New Normal" And The Transformation Of The Profit Model Of China’s Commercial Banks

Since the World Financial Crisis in 2008, the world economy has entered a period of deep transformation and adjustment, China’s economic development has also entered a period of economic growth shift, structural adjustment and pre-stimulus digestion, which is called “new normal”. The arriving of "New Normal" profoundly changes the macro and micro environment of commercial banks, and has a significant impact on the profit model and income structure of commercial banks. For one thing, the shift in economic growth is not conducive to the bank’s assets expansion and the loan demand increasing, structural adjustment and pre-stimulus digestion will lead to a decline in the quality of bank assets,interest rate marketization process accelerate the deposit and loan interest rate tends to narrow, the profit model of commercial banks is unsustainable. For another, pre-stimulus digestion in “New Normal” provides more opportunities for commercial bank retail business, asset management business, consulting business and other non-interest income business. Therefore, the study the affection of “new normal” on transformation of commercial banks’ profit model is of reference significance to the development of commercial banks in the future.In this paper, the relationship between the "new normal" and the transformation of the profit model of commercial banks is the breakthrough point. Based on the theory of concept of the profit model of commercial banks, economic cycle theory and financial innovation theory and the analysis of the present situation of profit model of China’s commercial banks, we analyzed the affection of influence factors of commercial banks’ profitability, GDP growth rate and inflation rate on the profit structure of commercial banks, and the affection of "new normal" on the transformation of profit model of commercial banks, by using random effects model, longitudinal comparative analysis and the panel data of 16 listed commercial banks from 2001 to 2007( "old normal") and from2008 to 2014( "new normal").The empirical results reveal that the commercial bank non-interest income has no significant relationship with return on assets from 2001 to 2007,but they are highly correlated after that, it means that non-interest income from 2008 to2014 has larger influence on the commercial bank profitability than before. Over the same period, the affection of net interest margin, the size of credit, credit quality and capital adequacy on the return on assets is more obvious, while the affection of GDP growth rateand inflation rate on return on assets has declined. The arriving of the "new normal" inhibited the further promotion of commercial bank interest income and enhance the proportion of non-interest income in bank income, and "new normal" is conducive to promoting the transformation of profit model of commercial banks from interest oriented profit model to non-interest oriented profit model.