Prediction Research On Scale Of Urban Construction Land In Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration

The large amounts of non-construction land will be transformed into urban construction land as of the rapid development of economy and society in the Guanzhong urban agglomeration. Under the premise of meeting the demand of its economic and social development, how to reasonably supervise and control the urban construction land is a urgent affair. The effective way to solve this problem is to reasonably forecast the scale of urban construction land.In this paper, on the basis of relevant literature and theory research, it researches systematically urban construction land in Guanzhong urban agglomeration. Firstly, on the basis of analyzing general situation and development status of Guanzhong urban agglomeration in this paper, it analyzes comprehensively current situations of its urban construction land with two aspects of the amount and structure change, and concludes that the scale of urban construction land expands rapidly and its structure changes and so on. Secondly, through study ing literature, combing reality of Guanzhong urban agglomeration,it constructs the index system of urban construction land expansion drivers of Guanzhong urban agglomeration; and analyzes systematically the driving principle of factors of urban construction land expansion respectively from the perspective of overall and classification, and learns the driving principle is different with the different types of drivers of urban construction land. Again, it forecasts quantitative value of driving factors in 2016—2020 by the use of time series analysis, and forecasts the area of various types of urban construction land in 2016 – 2020 by constructing BP neural network model. Finally, based on the research results, it puts forward to the relevant policy recommendations to improve the rationality of utilizing of urban con-struction land and the efficiency of intensive use.In this paper, the research results and research ideas of analyzing the driving factors of urban construction land expansion and forecasting the scale of urban construction land have theoretical significance and reference value partly to the research of related issues of the urban construction land, and have a certain practical reference value to urban planning and rational utilization of land in the Guanzhong urban agglomeration.