Study On The Asymmetric Impact Of The Interest Rate On Housing Price In China

Since the housing system reformed in 1998, the housing price of our country formally entered the age of free fall and up. The real estate was gradually becoming the pillar industry of national economic development, which was related to the development of multiple upstream and downstream industries, and was strongly linked to Chinese finance. So the housing price became the concern of the government authorities and the social public all the time. When the housing price rose or fell continuously, the government always started to regulate and control to keep the real estate market in the healthy situation of steady development. Monetary policy is the main mean of the central bank to control the real estate market, its main presentations include the regulation of money supply and interest rate adjustment.This paper chose interest rate policy as research object, focused on the asymmetry of interest rate policy on housing price, including asymmetry of policy direction and region. The concrete research context was that were there any differences of the effects between tightening and easing periods, and were there any differences of the effects between different regions.After brief introduction to the current situation of the real estate market and the regulation process of interest rate policy, this paper expounded the pathway of interest rate on housing price, which provided a theoretical basis for variable selection. In the aspect of empirical analysis, after combing the interest rate policies introduced by the central bank, this paper divided the policies into tightening and easing periods to study the asymmetry of policy direction,the results indicated that the tightening interest rate policy was not effective in restraining housing price, and the easing interest rate policy could effectively push up housing price. What’s more, not all the interest rate variables were effective. In the study on asymmetry of region, this paper selected the data of 30 provinces and municipalities to divide into three regions called high, medium and low housing price through hierarchical cluster method, then adopted panel VAR model to analyze the effects of interest rate variables on housing price. The results showed that the interest rate policy was invalid in the region of high housing price. In another two regions, the Public Housing Fund(PHF) mortgage rate could effectively control the housing price, but the effectiveness of medium region was better.According to the results of the empirical analysis, this paper proposed the propercauses, and then put forward feasible suggestions from the aspects of policy, system,administrative means in response to the issues. At last, the paper summarized possible innovations and the deficiency, and put forward the future research direction.