Empirical Analysis On The Impact Of Climate Change On China’s Grain Yield

Climate change has caused widespread concern among the international communities. IPCC report notes that warming of the climate system is beyond doubt. In this context, temperature, precipitation and other climate factors are change, and accelerating hydrological cycle leads to increasing extreme weather events. This is not only affects social and economic development, but also may pose a serious threat to human survival due to the food production.China is an agricultural country, and the agricultural production is still depends on the weather. With the climate change, temperature and precipitation which are the important factors to agricultural production were changed. Increasing regional droughts, heavy precipitation and other extreme weather events pose devastating damage on agriculture. And the famers who cannot adapt to these events may get into trouble. Therefore, we must carry through the study which main focus on the impact of climate change on agricultural production. However, the most existing related studies are qualitative description, and a few studies are quantitative analysis which most studies use crop model and a few studies employ econometrics methods.This paper employs descriptive statistical analysis and measurement model to analyze the impact of climate change on food production. And then we come up with some countermeasures and suggestions according to the results of quantitative qualitative analysis. To achieve these objectives, this paper includes following study contents: First, we descriptively analyses the temperature and precipitation, natural disaster, grain yield and production from different scales by using long time series data. Second, we build econometric model to analyse the relationship of climate change with frequency of disasters and grain yield.The results showed that: A. Over the past56years, the annual average temperature increased year by year, the average minimum temperature and average maximum temperature showed an increasing trend, and the precipitation trend is not obvious, but it showed obvious inter-annual variability and significant regional differences, and the frequency of drought increased weakly year by year. B. On the whole, higher temperature and unsure precipitation has a negative effect on grain yield. If precipitation increase100mm, the grain yield will be reduced by0.07%. If the annual average temperature rise1℃, the grain yield will be reduced by0.1%. C. The impacts of temperature and precipitation change vary by regions. Higher temperature has positive effect on northeast, northwest, east, south and southwest areas. More precipitation has positive effect on north, northeast, northwest and southwest.