The Climatic Change To The Impact Of Crop Yields In The East Of Inner Mongolia

In the context of global climate change, in the face of increasing population, food security is facing the hitherto unknown challenge. As one of the main factors affecting the yield of crops, influence of weather conditions is huge. This thesis uses 2001-2010 year’s statistical data of agriculture in Zhalantun City and by the GIS method obtained the precipitation and surface temperature data,the expansion of the economic model of Cobb-Douglas production function model, the climate factors are also taken into consideration, to establish a model of “economic climate” for crop yields in Zhalantun city. On this basis, this thesis is to research the relationship of yield and crops to climate change in the research area. The new model verified the accuracy, calculation of elastic index of each period of time, the surface temperature and precipitation, correlation analysis and production data, the climatic factors, summed up the crop yield response to climate change, and found out the law for the eastern region of Inner Mongolia crop yield in Zhalantun city as the representative, and provided the corresponding countermeasures. The effect of crop yield main climatic factors—time and space analysis of surface temperature and precipitation, concluded that from 2001 to 2010 years, the Zhalantun City’s average surface temperature is 6.02 ℃, during the 10 years, the surface temperature to 0.11 DEG increments each year and the annual growth rate is large. This area has a positive response to global warming and sensitivity to the environment. Precipitation showed a gradually increasing trend in ten years, with an average annual rainfall of ten years is 435.8mm that is mainly concentrated in June,July and August, accounting for the total annual precipitation of 74.1%, and the least rainfall in January and February. From the view of spatial distribution, annual precipitation and annual average surface temperature in the research area presents the east high and west low distribution characteristics, average annual precipitation and surface temperature with latitude increasing. In agriculture, the main agricultural factors affecting crop yield is sown area, total power of agricultural machinery and the amount of chemical fertilizer. Single factor under consideration of Agriculture, effect on crop yield, the percentages were 53.35%, 18.3%, 15.3%,random interference factors accounted for 13.05%. Based on comparison with the yield and precipitation surface temperature and the elastic index of “economic-climate” model, the elastic index of precipitation is greater than zero, and decreased with the increase of crop yield, there was obvious correlation. That is mean when the rainfall reaches a certain level, the positive effect of rainfall on crop yield will be reduced. Correlation between the apparent elasticity index and the yield surface temperature is not obviously, but in most cases is negative, that mean in most cases, surface temperature increase will lead to lower production, and negatively related to crop yield.