Conservation Priority Areas Of Rare Mammals Under The Background Of Climate Change In Northeastern China

Climate change has already been one of important factors threatening global biodiversity. Therefore, it is significant to study the conservation priority areas of species, especially rare species so as to make dynamic strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenario. In this study, 18 rare mammals are selected as study object. We adopt the maximum entropy (Maxent) model and geographic information system (ArcGIS), combining species occurrence records and related 22 environmental factors, to simulate 18 rare mammals’distribution range under current climate condition(1950-2000) in Northeastern China. The future potential distribution for those species are also predicted in two periods,2041-2060 and 2061-2080. under two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Furthermore, we analyze the species diversity change of Northeastern China and determinate the species conservation priority areas in RCP4.5 scenario. Based on the GAP analysis for these conservation priority areas, proposals for priority conservation plans are made. The main conclusions of this report are as follows:(1) Compared with current climate, average annual temperature and annual precipitation will both increase in study area.(2) Climate change in study area will cause a significantly decline on the total distribution areas of 18 rare mammals. The decline in RCP8.5 scenario is bigger than in RCP4.5’s. By 2041-2060, the distribution areas of species will decrease by 49.82% on average; by 2061-2080, the rate will increase to 78.78%.(3) Climate change will lead overall center of distribution for 18 rare mammals to move to a higher latitude and higher altitude areas, with the longer migration in RCP8.5 scenario than RCP4.5. By 2061-2080, the geometric center of species distribution in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario will shift by 250.06km and 426.02km respectively.(4) In RCP4.5 scenario, overall species diversity will reduce in study area. On one hand, the area with highest species richness will decrease from 2.5% of total study area to 0.78%(2041-2060) and 0.15%(2061-2080), on the other hand, the area with lowest species richness will increase from 64.18% of total study area to 72.73%(2041-2060) and 69.68%(2061-2080). In terms of spatial distribution, species diversity will decrease in southern region of the study area while increase in northern region of the studv area.(5) In RCP4.5 scenario,25.04% of the study area is the rare mammals’conservation priority area. However, only 8.19% of this area is located in nature reserve. The GAP analysis results show that many protection gaps exist in conservation priority areas, mainly distributing in Changbai Mountains, north area of Greater Khingan Mountains and south area of Lesser Khingan Mountains. It is need to build new nature reserve or adjust existing nature reserves in important protection gaps areas, so as to protect the local resources of mammals better.