Response Of Potential Suitable Distribution Area Of Four Paris Species To Climate Change And Analysis Of Their Dominant Climate Factors

Climatic factors are the most important factors affecting plant growth and their geographical distribution.At the same time,the dynamic changes in the geographical distribution of plants can also directly reflect changes in global climate.Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of species based on the data of its current distribution and climate data is important for understanding species evolution and reasonable conservation.To this study,Paris verticillata,Paris polyphylla,Paris polyphylla var.Chinensis and Paris polyphylla var.Stenophylla were used as the research object.We predicted the potential suitable area of four Paris species at present and future(2050s and 2070s)using the Max Ent3.4.1 model and Arc GIS 10.1 program,and explored the dynamic changes of their geographical distribution and the moving trajectory of the centroid of total suitable area(high and low suitable area).Further,we conducted analysis of their dominant climate factors and thresholds.Main conclusions are as follows:(1)The percentage of total suitable area of four Paris species are relatively small under current climate scenario,and the suitable region is relatively narrow,with strong limitations.The potential suitable area of P.verticillata are mainly located in northern China,while P.polyphylla,P.polyphylla var.Chinensis and P.polyphylla var.Stenophylla are mainly located in the south of Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River Line.Among them,There are overlaps in most areas such as the Qinling-Daba Mountains,Sichuan,Northern Yunnan,Southern Tibet,Chongqing,Guizhou,Northwest Guangxi,Northern Guangdong,Western Hubei and Western Hunan,and the three are spatially alternately distributed from east to west.Compared with the actual distribution,their suitable ranges of four Paris species have been expanded at present,and most areas are basically consistent with the actual distribution.(2)Compared with the current period,the total suitable area of four Paris species in2050 s and 2070 s shows a decreasing trend under the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5,and the trend is most obvious in the RCP 8.5 climate scenario.The high suitable area of P.verticillata would decline,the lowly suitable area would increase,while the high and low suitable area of P.polyphylla,P.polyphylla var.Chinensis and P.polyphylla var.Stenophylla would obviously decline.(3)In the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5,the centroids of the total suitable area of four Paris species in China in the 2050 s and 2070 s have a certaindegree of northward movement compared to the current period,but the direction and distance of migration are different.From the current period to 2070 s,the centroid of total suitable area of P.verticillata all migrated to the northeast and has the largest migration distance under the RCP 6.0 climate scenario,while P.polyphylla,P.polyphylla var.Chinensis and P.polyphylla var.Stenophylla moved to the northwest and have the largest migration distance under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario.(4)The potential geographic distribution of four Paris species are jointly restricted by temperature and precipitation.The primary dominant climatic factors that affect the geographic distribution of four Paris species are related to precipitation,and all of their dominant climatic factors included annual mean temperature.The dominant climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of P.polyphylla,P.polyphylla var.Chinensis and P.polyphylla var.Stenophylla were highly similar,including annual precipitation,annual mean temperature,temperature seasonality,and the annual precipitation is their primary leading climate factor.