Climate Change And Its Influence On Main Crop Planting In Altay Region

Based on the daily temperature data of7meteorological stations from1961to2010in Altai region, thespatiotemporal variation of agriculture resources (the annual average temperature,≥0℃accumulatedtemperature,≥10℃accumulated temperature and precipitation) were analyzed systematically using themethods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, T-test and Kriging mixed interpolation methods.Combining with agricultural meteorological index, further research also conducted on the influence ofclimate change on crop planting, seeding time and planting layout and production in the region. The resultshows that:(1) Annual average temperature increased2.1℃in the last50a. During which, the temperature of Julyincreased1.5℃,≥0℃accumulated temperature increased358.5℃·d,≥10℃or higher accumulatedtemperature increased285.5℃·d. For the spatial perspective, annual average air temperature, and≥0℃,10℃accumulated temperature of Fuyun county increased most and increased to3.3℃、553.5℃·d、439℃·d, respectively.(2) The precipitation of annual, winter and July increased by71mm、51.9mm、3.5mm, respectively.Whereas,≥0℃and≥10℃precipitation reduced by7.8mm,10.2mm in the study region.(3) The seeding time of spring wheat in Jimunai County, Fuhai County and Fuyun County havesignificantly early trend, in advance of5days,4.7days and2days, respectively. Among which, Fuhuaicounty ahead most (5d). Spring corn and spring soybean seeding time of six counties and Altay city rangedin advance of3-8d.Among which, Habahe county ranged the maximum days (8d).(4) As the climate warms, the northern belt of spring maize expand to eastern direction continuously,with the transformation from non-grown region to early ripe area, from early ripe to mid-(late)ripe, andfrom mid-(late)ripe to late ripe. The cropping system of spring corn varied from early ripe to mid-(late) ripe,and from mid-(late) ripe to late ripe, and the scope of late ripe maize expended significantly during past50a.(5) Climate warming have more influence on the yield of spring wheat than the maize. Climate changehave the same influence on the variation production of spring wheat and maize during the same sceneryclimate. However, different meteorological factors have distinctive influence on the climate production ofthe grains.