| As a new kind of energy crops, Jatropha has high economicvalue.The south of China has abundant water, heat and light resources. These areas are suitable to develop Jatropha’s cultivation and production. Therefore, The climatic suitabilityzoning of Jatrophacultivation in southern China could help southern China province(municipalities) to give full play to the unique climate resources to expand acreage planted to adjust the layout, optimize the industrial structure, to achieve tung’s high yield and quality.Freezingcoldin winter is the majoy meteorological disasters to threaten Jatropha cultivation’s safety.Freezing cold in winter often leads different degrees of damage to Jatropha plants, some plants even had been killed by the low temperature.Region winter freezing cold disaster risk zoning in southern China, has great significance for provinces (municipalities) take corresponding measures to ensure Jatropha plants winter safely.Based on thecomprehensive analysis of theJatropha quality and meteorological factors date, previous research findings and expert opinion,the author determined the zoning factors of Jatropha climatic suitability zoning and the indicators’ classification.Then completed Jatropha climatic suitability zoning on ArcGIS platform.In addition, from the climate, geographical background and social environment of low-temperature damage’s formation,the paper selected the hazard risk, environmental sensitivity of breed disaster and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilitiesto build a comprehensive risk assessment of low-temperature damage index. Achieved theJatropha’s winter cold freezing risk zoning in south China, Combined with appropriate zoning and freezing hazard, obtained the Jatropha’s planting northern boundary, analyzed the planting northernboundary’s mobile case from1981~2010roughly. The resultsindicated: (1) There are five climate suitability partitions of Jatropha, includes unsuitable areas, the first transition zone, sub-suitable area, the second transition area, and suitable area. Suitable area accounted for28%of the totalentire study area, approximately833,000square kilometers. Second transition areaaccounted for6%of the totalentire study area, approximately178,500square kilometers. Sub-suitable areaaccounted for15%of the entire study area, approximately446,300square kilometers. The first transition zoneaccounted for34%of the total area, approximately1011.500square kilometers. At last, the unsuitableaccounted for17%of the totalentire study area, approximately505,800square kilometers.(2)In the entire study area, the low-risk of low-temperature damage area occupy about1115,900square kilometers, accounted for38%of the entire area. The moderate risk areaof about1,105,800square kilometers, accounted for37%of the entire area. The times of high risk areas of about505,800square kilometers, accounted for17%of the entire area. Then, the hing risk areas are relatively small, of about238,200square kilometers, accounted for8%of the total area.(3)The Jatropha’s planting northernboundary of our country in between25.14N-29.71N, acrossed Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and other seven provinces from west to east. In addition, there is a a closed contour areasimilar to the north boundaries appeared in the Sichuan Basin between103.59E~108.19E and28.14N~31.38N. In the past30years, Jatropha’s planting northern boundary of our country showing a moving northward trend. The closed contour areasimilar to the north boundariesin theSichuan Basin was also had a tendency to expand outward. |