The Research Of Forest Fire Spread Prediction Method Based By DEVS

The forest fire occurred in our country have caused the economy suffering a certain degree of loss, and the forest ecological environment also suffered considerable damages. Due to the forest fire occurred suddenly and strongly, being devastating and difficult to disposal assistance, it has severely restricted the sustainable development of our contemporary forestry. Therefore, the forest fire forecasting has become the most important part of forest fire prevention work. In this paper, we take the forest fires in Hunan province as the research object, with the combination of WangZF fire spread model proposed by Chinese scholars and the United States advanced DEVS forest fire spread model, we proposed a forest fire spread prediction method applicable to our country. The main work is as follows:(1) Combining the DEVS and China Southern Collective Forest fire spread model, various types of discrete event models related to forest fire spread are built, including fuel DEVS atomic model, weather DEVS atomic model, ignition DEVS atomic model and forest cell unit DEVS atomic or coupled model. Because of the internal structure of the system is more modular, which can reduce the degree of coupling.(2) Combining the DEVS model with US Rothermel forest fire spread model and taking the forest fires which have occurred in our Southern Collective Forest as example, DEVS-Rothermel forest fire spread simulation is conducted and the simulation results of application foreign models to China forest fire spread is analyzed.(3) DEVS-WangZF forest fire spread prediction method is proposed which was combined from DEVS model and WangZF forest fire spread model. And the separately comparation is done with the Rothermel forest fire spread model based by DEVS and the actual spread situation by taking forest fire have occurred in our Southern Collective Forest for example.Experiments show that the DEVS-WangZF forest fire spread models which was proposed in this paper is more in line with China’s actual situation of forest fire spread, compared to Rothermel forest fire spread model based by DEVS.