The Study On Application Of Foot And Mouth Disease Risk Early Warning In The Nature Protection Area By Using ARIMA Model And MAXENT Model

As the global climate change and the deterioration of the environment and human activities on climate and habitat disturbance and other reasons influence, people began to pay attention to all of the possible factors affecting the species richness. The wild animal disease is one of the important risk factors of species diversity, in the past 20 years, the wild animal epidemic sources are widely spread around the world. Foot and mouth disease is a kind of ancient wild animal epidemic sources, in recent years, the ncidence of infection is increased, for the animal cub mortality rate is very high, is likely to affect the animal diversity. So the disease early prevention is particularly important.In this paper, by using MAXENT model and ARIMA model to forecast the distribution and incidence of foot and mouth disease, and hope that through the combination of two models, forecast the occurrence of foot and mouth disease, to provide the reference for making prevention and control strategy.This paper firstly uses the MAXENT model to the global distribution of foot and mouth disease prediction:Based on the literature review, the OIE reports, the statistics of within the scope of the world foot-and-mouth disease in the geographic coordinates, download the environment factors from the world meteorological database, including biological factors, elevation, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature and average temperature environmental data with DIVA-GIS format conversion software, converted to MAXENT format to meet, and then coordinate data to input into the software of prediction, finally obtains theregional distribution in the global scope of the foot and mouth disease. And through the ROC curve, the Jackknife analysis, that the foot and mouth disease exists generally in dry and rainy seasons, the annual precipitation is more obvious and the climate is tropical orsubtropical regions.According to the MAXENT gradient prediction graph we can see that China’s foot and mouth disease high distribution area in the southwest of China, the predicted results of painconditions of southwestern China to agree. The wild animal resources in China’s southwestern region understanding, selection of cloven hoofed animal more, the Tibet autonomous region were predicted by ARIMA time series, validation of the ARIMA time series prediction reliability prediction model in the foot and mouth disease. The prediction results show that the predicted values agreed with the actual value can be very good, the model is applied to the prediction of foot and mouth disease.Through the study of this paper:the MAXENT model can be a science of foot and mouth disease may occur in regional risk prediction, through direct gradient prediction map, can be simple and clear that high-risk area export foot and mouth disease, ARIMA model can be in ahigh risk area, based on the incidence data collected, which were specific incidence short term forecasting for the future of our country, the prevention and control of foot and mouth diseaseand provide scientific reference.