Establishment Of Calendar And Prediction Model Of Airborne Allergic Pollen In Urban District Of Kunming

Objective To determine the main species of airborne pollen by investigating and analyzing the species, quantity, and distribution rules of airborne pollen in urban area of Kunming. Established main airborne pollen calendar and forecast model of the relationship between pollen and meteorological conditions in this area. In this way we hope to predict species, growth and decline time of airborne pollen and thus provide a basis for the causal prophylaxis and immunological therapy of pollinosis.Methods We used exposure film to investigate the species and total number of airborne pollen by the means of gravitational sedimentation in Kunming urban area during these periods:Dec.1,2009-Nov.30,2010. Apr.22,2014-Aug.17,2014. Gathered the number of AIT positive AR patients as well as meteorological conditions in Kunming at the same time. Checked pollen dispersal data for Dec.l,1986-Nov.30,1987, as a contrast between the old and the new. We mainly analyzed data from Dec.1,2009 to Nov.30,2010. Used data from Apr.22,2014 to Aug.17,2014 as testing. Then we analyzed the relationship among meteorological conditions, the number of airborne pollen and AIT positive AR patients using correlation analysis methods for data analysis. According to seasonal distribution and biological characteristics of pollen, we establish pollen calendar. Combining with biology, meteorology and statistical analysis methods to establish meteorology predict model about main allergic airborne pollen and the number of AIT positive AR patients.Results From December,2009 to November,2010, there was a total of 60 exposure films on pollen general, including 26147 pollen. The annual airborne pollen showed two scattering peak, respectively:February to April and September to October; the number of advantage pollen was 17. The number of year-round drifting pollen is 13 while 2 species showed two peaks on spring and autumn. There was another 26 new species added to the results of 2009-2010, compared withl987-1989, the original 12species of airborne pollen was not seen. The drifting peak was the same. The relationship among the number of airborne pollen in Kunming, the number of AIT positive AR patients and the meteorological conditions was close. There were 19 species of main allergic airborne pollen. Determined by proportion, there were 12 species to be forecasting:pine, drought white gourd, leguminosae, cupressaceae, humulus scandens marijuana, walnut, quinoa, artemisia, populus, rose, gramineae.Conclusion Determined the distribution rule of airborne pollen in Kunming. The relationship among the number of airborne pollen in Kunming, the number of AIT positive AR patients and the meteorological conditions was close. Established calendars of 12 main allergic airborne pollen species. Gradually established prediction model of relationship among the number of airborne pollen, AIT positive AR patients and meteorology elements. Found methods for the prediction of airborne allergic pollen, as well as provide evidence for the causal prophylaxis and immunological therapy of pollinosis...