Research On Space Distribution Prediction Model Of Bohai Period In Yanbian Area

·Yanbian area is one of the political, economic and cultural center during the Bohai period, Chinese and foreign scholars have gained fruitful results on the research of nationality-belonging, transportation, culture and other aspects of the research about Bohai period, but from the perspective of geography study is less, especially little research about the ruin space distribution prediction, therefore, it is necessary to study on the ruin space distribution prediction.In this paper, using existing data statistics ruin fundamental interest of the Yanbian area, and through the field investigation and literature determine ruin location on the Google map. Extract the impact ruin layout of height, slope, slope direction, degree of ruins, the distance from the ridge line, distance river valley line distance, distance from the road, distance from CunTun, land use type, natural and human factors such as vegetation type, soil type, respectively using logistic regression model and BP neural network to establish the forecast model for all types of ruins and in view of the settlement site, plain town site prediction model, is established under two kinds of methods of prediction accuracy of forecasting model and select the forecasting model of high precision, finally analysis the result of the forecast.Comprehensive the above study, the use of logistic regression model and BP neural network to establish the forecast model of prediction accuracy is over85%and they are very close. So the prediction model can be completely applied in the excavation of the ruin of the Bohai period in the future, avoid the waste of manpower and financial resources.From the predicted results, the no existing ruin area (area of probability is less than0.5area) accounted for82.4%of the study area, existing ruin area (area of probability is greater than0.5) accounted for17.6%of the study area, including An Tu county accounted for1.4%, Dun Hua city accounted for85.1%, He Long city is1.3%, Hun Chun city is3.1%,Long Jing city is2.1%, An Tu is1.2%Wang Qing is3.0%, Yan Ji is1.4%. Dun Hua city and Hun Chun city took the largest area, if we exploit someday, can give priority to these two citiesExisting ruin area is mainly distributed in valley plains, altitude of270-570m, slope of0°-3°, slope aspect center on ground and the northeast, from rivers0-1000m away, from road0-1500m away, from CunTun0-2000m away, land use type is given priority to with cultivated land and forest land, shrub land, forest, farmland, Yang Hualin, mixed needle leaf and oak trees, shrubbery, mountains and land, soil types are mainly in the white pulp soil, meadow soil, grey brown soil and alluvial soil, dark soil in existing ruin area.