The Research Of The Drought Loss Prediction Of Distribution And Strategies In China

High frequency, long duration of drought, wide range of effects, affect the treads, is one of the major natural disasters. Drought relief measures at present our country mainly by the government financial burden, although there are some drought insurance compensation, but with the developed countries, compared to30%-50%of insurance compensation rate after the catastrophe insurance in our country play a role of compensation is still a drop in the bucket. At present, China’s catastrophe risk management situation of drought is:first, the insurance coverage is not "heads". Premium subsidies, it is to use the government limited funds "leverage" huge insurance market, in a larger range spread risk, raise compensation funds. According to the current policy, is located in the province of major grain producing areas can be the central fiscal agricultural insurance premium subsidies, and other places have a variable-only the province put forward application and ensure the matching funds, the central government to give subsidies. However, due to the local financial disparity, support agricultural insurance policies are mostly lack of long-term mechanism. Policy engine fatigue, farmers are reluctant to cast protect, the insurance company will not ventured to develop the market. Second, catastrophe risk insurance system is not sound. Now the provinces of catastrophe fund raise for private use, mostly in the event of large area crop, such as southwest drought in the province of the catastrophe fund also couldn’t bear all responsibility.This paper first introduces the formation and distribution characteristics of drought in China;Secondly, using the grey model and Elman neural network model to forecast the losses of our country’s drought and contrast test prediction effect; Again, using the extremum model based on PORT to crop drought area in our country has carried on the fitting test;Finally, aimed at the present situation of our country against drought work problems puts forward the countermeasures and Suggestions.In conclusion, we think it can effectively prevent the drought. If can making practical drought management system, realize the sustainable utilization of resources, make effective regulations and cope with the extreme drought planning, earnestly to the community by the country’s water resources and the grain reserves work, effective control and drought disaster information, establish a scientific early-warning mechanism, our country can be fundamentally get rid of passive situation, minimizes the influence of the drought.