Prediction And Application Research Of Hunan Agriculture Drought Disaster

Drought is a global problem with the characteristics of long duration,high frequency and wide geographic distribution.Unfortunately,with the rapid development of economy,the problems of drought have become more obvious,which not only cause enormous losses to agricultural production,but also bring huge influence to people's life,the development of national economy and social stability.During the long time struggle with agricultural drought disaster,people gradually realized that the drought is inevitable,and what we can do is to reduce the losses to a minimum throught the scientific risk management and scattering the risk of drought.Therefore,it is necessary to carry on the scientific analysis and prediction about drought to provide scientific basis for the prevention and mitigation of agricultural disaster.Hunan not only is a major grain-producing provinc of our country,but also is an important production base of the cereal,cotton and oil in China.But in the mean time,Hunan province is one of the southern province where drought is the most serious.This paper make an intensive study of the risk of agricultural drought in Hunan province,through the methods of the literature analysis,empirical analysis,and combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis,which is based on the the theories of management science,econometrics,statistics and disaster risk management,etc.Firstly,this essay draw lessons from the existing research results and define the drought disasters and agricultural drought disaster.Then,author make a thorough inquiry about the spatial and temporal distribution,the social and economic impact and the formation mechanism of drought disasters in Hunan.The mainly reason of drought disaster in Hunan is the special climate and geographical conditions,which lead to the uneven distribution of rainfall in time and space.So the agriculture of Hunan enjoy abundant rain water as well as suffering from seasonal drought disasters.And then,starting from the internal and external mechanism of agricultural drought disaster,analysis of its influencing factors.We have summarized the influencing factors of agricultural drought disaster in Human as three categories:natural factors,human activities and economic development factors.Based on the analysis of agricultural drought disaster and the distribution regularity in 36 years from 1978 to 2014 year.We use the gray GM(1,1) prediction model and make the crop abnormal index as evaluation index of agricultural drought,then with the help of MATLAB software,the grey GM(1,1) prediction model is established to forecast the trend of Agricultural drought disaster of Hunan province in the next 15 years;Finally,according to the actual situation of agricultural drought disaster in our province,combined with the results of this analysis,and starting from the influencing factors of drought disaster,this paper put forward suggestions on disaster prevention and reduction of agricultural drought disaster in Hunan.The countermeasures and suggestions mainly includes the following points:improving the ability of government organization and coordination;improving monitoring and early warning ability;strengthening construction of irrigation and water conservancy fundation project;optimizing water use structure;adjusting crop planting structure;enhancing the water saving propaganda.Sincerely hoping the suggestion can offer some effective decision-making basis for effectively prevent and anti-drought,improving the emergency management ability,reducing disaster losses,stabling grain production and safeguarding farmer income and so on.