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Research On University Financial Risk Prediction Based On AHP And Hill Estimator

Posted on:2014-02-11Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:R X ZhaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2297330452469936Subject:Accounting
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Since the year of1998, our country decided to popularize the higher educationto satisfy the educational need of the broad masses, which ushered the highereducation of our country into enter a new era of development. Meanwhile, in orderto fulfill the goal of education popularization, colleges and universities chose todevelop with debt. The gross enrollment rate, which is only5%at first, has reached30%by the year of2013. During the process from elite education to mass education,universities rapidly developed in just a few years and the higher education in ourcountry become the largest scale in the world. But while the universities were busywith snatching the opportunity for rapid development. But rapid development alsolaid hidden problems for the future development because of the too fast development.There was not enough financial support for the development of universities becauseof the education expansion and the inadequate government finance investment. Inorder to solve the problems in a short term, universities chose to take liability, themost important of which is bank loans. Although the problem of debt was settled byliability for a while, the financial risk was increased. The problem is that the incomegenerating capacity of university has not been improved greatly. When repaymentdate approaches, the universities would be in the financial crisis.This thesis first introduces some theories and analyzing methods about thefinancial risk. Then16indicators are selected to establish the college financial earlywarning model on the basis of the analysis of four aspects of university, which aredebt paying ability, operating ability, development ability and comprehensive ability,by taking advantage of the AHP. At last, through the comparison of43universities,the university financial risk is divided into three levels of light alarm, medium alarm,serious alarm and two transition stages by exploiting the Hill estimator method todetermine the threshold of different phase of the university financial early warningcomprehensive indicator.
Keywords/Search Tags:Higher education, Financial risk, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Hillestimator
PDF Full Text Request
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