Empirical Studies On Relations Between Population, Energy Consumption, Economy And CO₂ Emissions In Central China

The central China includes six provinces: Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi. The area has 26.5% of the country’s population, and depends on 10.7% of the country’s land to create approximately 21.6% of the country’s GDP. It is the most populous region, the economic hinterland and the important market in China. In addition to the rich mineral resources in the central region, it plays a very important role in the regional division of labor in our country. Since the introduction of relevant policies about rise of central China, the economy of central region have developed effectively, while its carbon dioxide emissions situation is of concern.Firstly, this paper makes a detailed analysis about population, energy consumption, economic and carbon dioxide emissions about central China from 1998 to 2013. The results show that the urbanization population, sustained economic growth, total energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in central region are being increased year by year; but the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions is much higher than energy consumption and economic development.Secondly, the paper analyses the relationship between population, energy consumption, economic development and CO2 emissions about the central region based on data from 1998 to 2012. It shows a trend that basically the higher GDP follows by higher energy consumption and carbon emissions except in Hunan province and Shanxi province. By comparative study of groups, Hunan is superior to Shanxi in energy intensity and carbon intensity and so on.Thirdly, we use LMDI decomposition to build an incremental decomposition mode based on data from 1998 to 2012 in order to quantitatively analyze the central region of carbon emissions factor, such as population size, the structure of energy consumption, energy intensity and economies of scale. The research shows that economic scale and population is stimulating factors of carbon emissions while energy consumption structure and energy intensity is inhibiting factor of carbon emissions. Due to the actual situation of different groups, the stimulating factors and inhibitors have different forces, and thus different groups’ cumulative carbon emissions have different contribution to the central region overall carbon emissions.Finally, according to the above findings of the research, the paper proposes some policy measures and suggestions of carbon reduction in central China, such as adjusting structure, advancing technology, strengthening consciousness, establishing benchmark and focusing on priorities.