Estimation And Factor Decomposition Analysis Of Government Consumption Carbon Emission

Government consumption is an indispensable means to promote social equity and increase public welfare.The annual consumption expenditure of our government is relatively large,and the carbon emissions implied in its consumption behavior can not be underestimated.Therefore,it is of great significance to calculate and study the carbon emissions of government consumption for our country's emission reduction work.This article describes the current situation of government consumption expenditure from three aspects: the scale of government consumption expenditure,the proportion of government consumption expenditure to GDP,and the proportion of government consumption expenditure to total consumption.Then it qualitatively analyses the relationship between government consumption and carbon emissions,and reflects the impact of government consumption expenditure on carbon emissions by using STIRPAT expansion model and ridge regression method.Deeply study the importance of government consumption carbon emissions.Then,based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,the carbon emission intensity of various industries is calculated.According to the Input-Output Table,government consumption expenditure is divided into six types,each type corresponds to different industries,and the calculation model of government consumption carbon emissions is constructed,and the relevant data are brought into the empirical analysis.Then,the carbon emissions of government consumption are analyzed based on the combination forecasting model.Predictive analysis was carried out.Finally,based on 1990,the LMDI decomposition model of government consumption carbon emissions is constructed.The influencing factors of government consumption carbon emissions are decomposed into government consumption carbon intensity,government consumption structure,government consumption scale,economic development factors and population size.The influencing factors of government consumption carbon emissions are studied.The results show that: Firstly,the total population,urbanization rate,per capita GDP and government consumption expenditure have a positive effect on China's carbon emissions.For every 1% increase in government consumption expenditure,China's carbon emissions will increase by 0.0851%.Although the increase is small,China's carbon emissions are huge every year,and the added value of carbon emissions caused by the growth of government consumption can not be underestimated.Secondly,although the total amount of government consumption carbon emissions fluctuates,it shows an upward trend.According to the results of the combined forecasting model and the proportion of government consumption carbon emissions in the national carbon emissions,it is concluded that the government consumption carbon emissions show a linear growth trend in 2018-2027,and the government consumption carbon emissions will reach 47.4527 million tons in 2027,which is a figure that can not be ignored,and it is of great significance to put the focus of controlling carbon emissions on government consumption for the formulation of emission reduction policies.Thirdly,the contribution value of government consumption expenditure structure,government consumption expenditure scale,economic development and population scale to government consumption carbon emissions has been positive.Among them,government consumption expenditure scale and economic development are the main driving force of government consumption carbon emissions.The structure of government consumption expenditure and population size have little effect on the promotion of government consumption carbon emissions.The contribution value has always been negative,which has a strong inhibitory effect on government consumption carbon emissions.The reduction of energy consumption intensity brought by technological progress is the most fundamental force to restrain the increase of government consumption carbon emissions.According to the research conclusion and the actual situation of our country,this paper puts forward several policy suggestions: saving energy and improving energy utilization rate;limiting the scale of government consumption expenditure and guiding green consumption;and establishing corresponding punishment system to implement the concept of green development.