Demographic-Effects Assessing Of Xinjiang Population Fertility Transition

As an important symbol of the demographic transition, the transition of the fertility level will cause population and population phenomenon that caused by the economic changes,namely Demographic-Effects, including demographic effects and the population economic effect.This paper in order to research the Xinjiang from 1991 to 2014 because of the fertility level changes bring since the effect of population change, three different fertility levels has been adopted, the actual level of fertility rate as the benchmark program, the unplanned birth of fertility level as alternative scheme, the replacement fertility levels as alternative scheme 2.Using census data for the fourth time in Xinjiang, through the PADIS-INT population forecast software, it is concluded that 1991-2014 in Xinjiang under the two comparison methods of population size, demographic data such as age, sex ratio. Compared with base solution found that from 1991 to 2014, because the family planning policy, the population scale in Xinjiang,the workforce has decreased. By 2014, Xinjiang’s population growth has been below replacement fertility levels; To the population structure, the population pyramid shape of Xinjiang has shift from "divergent" to "shrink", Children’s dependency ratio decrease year by year, elderly dependency ratio increased year by year, close to the level of an ageing population.Secondly, this paper in order to study in Xinjiang from 1991 to 2014 as the population size, population economic effect brought by the population structure change, by building a dynamic model for the population-economy measure under the two comparison methods of economy, consumption level, the change of the capital stock. Empirical results found that compared with scheme 1 and scheme 2, 1991-2014 in Xinjiang because the changing of the fertility level, population scale and population structure of the combination of Xinjiang economic growth, consumption level, increased capital accumulation has created favorable conditions. In a separate analysis of population scale and population structure to the economiccontribution rate, population scale and population structure has the characteristics of periodic negative correlation with the rate, at the beginning of the fertility level change, rapid economic growth, population size and higher population structure contribution rate. Late in the fertility transition, economic growth is slowing, the population size contribution rate is higher and lower contribution rate of population structure. This is mainly because with the rising of labor resources in Xinjiang, the population structure of the elderly population than caused by the increasing.Finally, the article puts forward that the future should maintain the current population in Xinjiang scale growth, open up the second child;We should do the good job in the connection work of related policy well; Increased investment in science and technology, improve labor productivity; Increase investment in education, improve the quality of the labor force;Optimize the population structure, perfecting the social security and so on.