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Research On Transmission Mechanism Of Population Age Structure And Economic Growth

Posted on:2018-08-28Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y J ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2347330542963732Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The population of different age stages have different requirements,consumption and saving in the population age structure changes under the background of our country.We explore how the population age structure effects on internal conduction mechanism of economic growth,which is of great importance of the economic development in our country at present.In our country the population age structure changes have brought the demographic dividend effect.And the labor supply is adequate,the burden of raising working age population has reduced correspondingly,which provides plenty of power to our country economic growth.Since 2000,on the other hand,China's population aging speed is accelerated.The demographic dividend disappears since 2013,and so far the changes of population age structure caused by the negative effects are also happening.With the disappearance of demographic dividend,sustained economic growth in China also needs a new power since the reform and opening-up policy.So we study this topic of how the population age structure change influencing macroeconomic in this paper.This paper is divided into three parts.The first part is to summarize the research results of previous scholars,and then to build the economic growth theory framework suitable for our national conditions based on the current situation of population age structure.The second part is to construct the internal transmission mechanism of how the population age structure acting on economic growth.The third part is to put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote sustained and steady economic growth of our country on the basis of empirical analysis results.The first chapter introduces the background of the study and introduces the content of this paper.The second chapter of literature review combed the domestic and foreign scholars on the population age structure of labor supply,human capital accumulation,the relationship between savings and investment and economic growth,the theoretical review mainly narrates from the four aspects of population age structure of the transmission mechanism with economic growth.On the basis of these,the third chapter analyses the current situation of China's population in terms of natural population growth rate,demographic structure and dependency ratio.In the fourth chapter,the population age structure is added to the traditional solow growth model,and the theoretical framework of this paper is constructed.In chapter five,six and seven,the empirical analysis embrace how the three approaches of population age structure on labor supply,total factor productivity and savings rate applying to economic growth.The chapter five puts the dependency ratio in biochemical to labor supply in the basis of Cobb-Douglas production function.The results show the children's dependency ratio produces positive effects on economicgrowth by increasing labor supply,while the elderly dependency ratio produces the negative effects.And total dependency ratio drops produces positive effects on economic growth subject to an ageing population trends of a certain extent.The chapter six joins the level of human capital in the solow model to construct effective labor structure.And then we introduce Lucas model to get the results of human capital effect on economic growth more than the material capital influence degree,we also discusses that the advances in technology have positive effects on economic growth.The chapter seven makes empirical analysis by building per capita output,the dependency ratio between saving rate and error correction model.The results show that the population bring-up ratio decreased by increasing savings to promote economic growth.Respectively,the research analysis conducts from the long-term and short-term changes effect for this paper.On the basis of empirical analysis,last chapter eight puts forward the policy recommendations of how China's population age structure aging trend obviously influencing on economic growth effect.There are respectively five aspects: the adjustment of population policy,to strengthen the construction of human capital investment,to provide more employment opportunities,to adjust the momentum of economic development and to increase the investment of our social security.
Keywords/Search Tags:population age structure, economic growth, labor supply, total factor productivity, savings rate, demographic dividend
PDF Full Text Request
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