Study On Sustainability Of China's Economic Growth Under The Low Fertility Level

Population as one of the macroeconomic variables, as one of the important clue for understanding economic growth, economic growth have an extremely important effect, and determine the economy's growth process quite a long time. Simple point of view, population size determines the number of people participating, in the labor, consumer market size; population age structure and future changes in the macro decisions were seen as capital formation, savings levels, the demographic dividend levels, urbanization, and the concept of wages, cost and profit a major factor; while the regional distribution of population, migration and mobility which closely means the flow of wealth and resources, the household registration system; the population distribution of industries is a certain extent determined the economic structure, industrial structure and economic development pattern; the quality of the population directly determines the formation of human capital investment, technological innovation and economic efficiency.Currently, the low birth rate as a new demographic phenomenon has aroused the concern of the international community more deeply, many economists, demographers discussed the status of low birth rate, formation mechanism, economic and social impact. China is now at a stage of low fertility level, which is also researched by China's scholars.Based on this, this paper use of demographic and economic theories and research methods, population and economic growth in clarifying the theoretical context based on the analysis of low fertility and the relationship between economic growth and mechanisms, mainly from the population size and population structure of the relevant variables starting to establish a low fertility level and demographic dividend, Lewis turning point, the problem of population aging on economic growth,and finally puts forward some policy recommendations.Specifically, the thesis is divided into eight chapters.The first chapter is an introduction. This chapter presents the background, significance, and to discuss issues related to the research paper described the ideas and methods, the basic framework of the thesis.The second chapter is a literature review and theoretical framework. This paper concludes with a theoretical framework. For later provide the basis for further research and support.The third chapter analyzes China's economic growth in the contribution of demographic factors. Chapterâ…£analyzes the status of the low birth rate and long-term relationship with economic growth. Chapterâ…¤analyzes the demographic dividend under the low fertility level and sustainability of economic growth. Chapterâ…¥analyzes the labor supply of low fertility level, Lewis turn and sustainability of economic growth. Chapterâ…¦analyzes the relationship of population aging and the economic growth. The fifth, sixth, seventh chapter is the main part of the paper, that is the reality of the conditions of low fertility level, China's economic growth, how to maintain the sustainability of the reality investigated. Including the demographic dividend, Lewis turning point, population aging on the impact of China's economic growth and the future direction of maintaining the sustainability of economic growth.Chapterâ…§is the conclusion and policy recommendations.More than eight chapters constitute the four parts of the thesis, that the research base, the basic situation, the reality investigation, the conclusion countermeasures. The first part of which put forward the "Why study the low fertility levels, the sustainability of China's economic growth?", The second part of the answer to the "sustainability of China's economic growth is the extent to which demographic factors on fertility levels and expand of? ", the third part of the main answer to the" low birth rate and how it affects the sustainability of China's economic growth and the direction of what? ", the fourth part of the thesis is given the basic conclusions and policy recommendations. Paper has some innovative, one reviews the theory of population and economic growth context and reality of low fertility variable is introduced into the major population and economic growth theory context. Second, answer to economic growth in China's demographic factors, fertility and economic growth, long-term relationships, and with the neo-classical growth theory framework and cointegration this is explained and analyzed. Third, on the basis of the theoretical framework clearly under low fertility level demographic dividend, Lewis turning point with the population aging on economic growth, and pointed out that the future direction of maintaining the sustainability of economic growth. Fourthly, China's fertility policy should be adjusted, for the balanced development of population, the low fertility levels, and the sustainability of economic growth.