Empirical Analysis Of Changes In International Oil Prices On China’s Macro-economic Impact

In recent years, the international oil market situation changes greatly, oil pricesrun highly and fluctuated up and downs, which undoubtedly increased national energysecurity risks, especially increasing the burden on the oil-importing countries. Withthe rapid development of China’s national economy and the improvement in the levelof industrialization, China’s oil consumption is currently the world’s second largest netimporter of oil import dependence approaching60%. Therefore, as an importantstrategic energy oil plays an important role in China’s national defense and securityand the national economy. Since1998, China’s oil pricing mechanism established withinternational standards, the impact of international oil prices also will be transmittedto the production aspects of life in our country and our economic development. Thispaper studied theoretically in international oil pricing mechanism andmacro-economic impact of all aspects of our country, and conducted empiricalanalysis of the relationship between international oil prices and domestic oilprices.And we also established the econometric model of the impact of internationaloil prices and domestic oil prices on economic growth, the price level,import, exportand financial market, and complemented by co-integration test, Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition studies, so as to clarify the mechanismof the impact of oil price shocks which can help China to cope with the risk of highoil prices and make the right decisions.