An International Comparative Study On The Structure Of Foreign Trade Commodity Reasonable Degree

The evaluation of trade reasonable degree which is based on foreign commodityor service structure has its own limited. It does not fully consider the relationshipbetween foreign commodity or service structure and industrial structure but alsopulling or driving on economy by foreign commodity. This paper construct reasonableindex of trade based on industrial structure and industrial linkage effect. This indexcan fully report the reflection between foreign trade commodity and industrialstructure. This paper firstly bases on non-competitive input-output model tore-derivation the driving force coefficient and pull power coefficient of industrialsectors, then proposes commodity structure’s reasonable index in view of the twocoefficients. Lastly according to the data from1995-2011of non-competitiveinput-output tables of China, Japan, UK, USA, South Korea, France and Germany,this paper try to comparative analysis of the driving role of China’s foreign trade inthe economy.Through a comparative analysis, this article draws the following threeconclusions:First, each country import and export sector structure is relatively concentratedand the structure of import is more stability than export. Developed economies foreigntrade structures are more stability than developing economies, the fluctuation of theproportion which is main import and export department in China is biggest among theseven counties.Second, from the view of export pulling power coefficient, the manufacturingsector’s pulling power to the total output is high and the service sector’s pulling powerto the added value is high. The two pulling power coefficient also have a mirror-imagerelationship. The fluctuation of export’s pulling power to the total output is higherthan to the added value, especially the fluctuation of the service deportment export’spulling power to the added value of development countries is higher. From the view ofimport driving force coefficient, service sector import driving force to the added valueis higher than manufacturing sector in developed country and the force in developedcountry is also higher than those in developing country. The sorting of import drivingforce coefficient is more stable in developed country and the fluctuation of China’smain import department driving force is largest.Third, from the perspective of our country, the export reasonable Index which is based on the total output to calculate was rise but which is based on the added value tocalculate had showed a trend of decline from2004. Affected by financial crisis, theexport reasonable Index had fallen to periodic lows in2008. At the same time, Importreasonable Index had presented a trend of increasing which was not affected byfinancial crisis. Imports of intermediate goods have not completely substitute likedomestic goods which can help to promote economic growth. So Import reasonableIndex increasing shows that the ability to overcome the supply bottlenecks of ournational economic system has enhanced.Fourth, comparison across countries, the export reasonable Index which is basedon the total output to calculate has obvious regional characteristic, such as China,Japan and South Korea had presented a trend of increasing and other country showeda trend of decline; but the export reasonable Index of each country which is based onthe added value to calculate showed a trend of decline except UK. The importreasonable Index which is deduced by import structure and driving force coefficienthad been a general uptrend except France, the fluctuation of the index in China isbiggest among the seven counties.