Research On Mechanism Of The Influence Of Crude Oil Price On RMB Effective Exchange Rate

As an important basic energy, oil is regarded as the “blood” of modern industry.As a non-renewable energy, the output and price level of crude oil price fluctuateswith respect to world production and economic growth due to its unique productionmechanism and price mechanism. As an important factor of production, crude oilprice fluctuations, by affecting the price of factors and finished goods prices, affectnational social price level and the national economy. As the world’s biggest tradedbulk stock, crude oil endowment difference decides that crude oil price fluctuationsprofoundly influence trade activities, monetary policy, and then affect the entireeconomic growth and economic development quality of different economies. With therapid development of China’s economy, China’s consumption of crude oil and foreigndependence ratio of oil is immer increasing, crude oil price volatility on the impact ofmacro economic development in our country is increasingly obvious. As the sametime, as an important international economic variables, exchange rate plays a veryimportant role in the national economy development especially in the foreigneconomic, so this research whether the price of crude oil can affect the exchange ratethrough macroeconomic has the vital significance.This paper, which is based on the combination of qualitative analysis andquantitative analysis, from the special characteristics of crude oil and its price, analysethe influence of the imported crude oil price on RMB nominal effective exchange ratecomprehensively, with the use of cointegration analysis and mediating effect analysisand structure of the appropriate theory model.First of all, this paper theoretically analyzes the influence of crude oil price oneffective exchange rate, which is based on the exchange rate determination theory.And this paper concluded there are three mechanisms between crude oil price andexchange rate, they respectively are the mechanism of international balance ofpayment, the mechanism of prices and the mechanism of relative economic growth.Secondly, on the basis of theoretical analysis, the monthly data after theexchange rate reform in July2005is picked up as the research sample, therelationship between China’s imported crude oil price and the RMB nominal effectiveexchange rate was studied with the method of cointegration analysis. Results showthat there is a positive correlation relationship between the above two variables,China’s imported crude oil price roses1%, RMB nominal effective exchange rate will rise by0.45%.Thirdly, combined with the theory of transmission mechanism, China’s exportgrowth rate, foreign direct investment, domestic consumer price index and theindustrial added value growth rate are choosed from the three mechanisms of theinfluence to be intermediate variables, this four intermediate variables are respectivelytested with using the method of moderate effect and mediating effect analysis. Thefour intermediate variables are proved to be the mediating variables not the moderatevariables. From the direction of the intermediary effect, China’s export growth rateand the domestic consumer price index play a negative role, and foreign directinvestment and industrial added value growth rate in China is produce positive impact.From the degree of mediating effect, the domestic consumer price index is mostobvious.