The Research On The Financial Crisis’s Stage Pre-warning For Listed Manufacturing Companies

TheUnited Statessubprimemortgagecrisis triggered a globalfinancialcrisis in2007, causinga greatimpact onChina’s exportdriveneconomy, resultingin a largenumberofenterprises failures.Therefore, an effective financial crisis pre-warning model has become an important managementmeans to ensure enterprises’ continuity. However, the shortcoming of present research onformative characteristics of the financial crisis impact applied value of financial crisis pre-warningmodel.This article selected43listed corporations from manufacturing industry which were specialtreated because of the abnormal financial condition in2010to2012year,and didn’t have specialtreatment records in the last five years，and in accordance with1：1matching principle，itselected43non-ST corporations as the non—financial crisis paired group to analysis this periodicalcharacteristic. In the process of this analysis, we firstly chose the two groups’ five years’ databefore they were special treated, employed the K-S normality test, Mann-Whitney U test and T testto examine the mean differences between two groups year by year. Then, we can screen outsignificantdifferent indexesbetween thetwo groups yearby year. At lastwe usethefactoranalysis,logistic regression analysis to build pre-warning models. The study found that in five years beforethe crisis happened, the significant difference indexes between two groups are different. With thepassage of time, the number of significant different indexes shows a gradually increasing trend.More importantly, warning variable is not the same in the periodical pre-warning models andshows diverse coefficients in different stage models. This two aspects indicate that the processesand stages of enterprise crisis development exist and in different stages have differentcharacteristics. The significance test indicate that financial crisis stage mainly divided into: latentstage of the crisis(the fifth year before ST), the deterioration stage of the crisis(the fourth and thirdyear before ST), the implementation stage of the crisis(the second and first year before ST).At thelatent stage of the financial crisis, few significant difference indexes exit between two groups.During this stage, the main characteristic of the financial crisis companies is the level of long-termliabilities debt is too high and lack of liquidity.At the deterioration stage of financial crisis, thenotable feature of the financial crisis companies is the operating capacity had deteriorated significantly. At the implementation stage of financial crisis, the chief property of the financialcrisiscompaniesareprofitability andgrowth capacityhaddeteriorated significantly.