Study On Correlation Of Economic Cycle Fluctuations And Industrial Structure Changes

As a concrete manifestation of the total economic growth, the economic cyclefluctuations is an unfailing topic in the mainstream economists. In theory economics,industrial structure and the law of its changes, which is a significant part of totaleconomy, often seen as a result of economic growth and its cycle fluctuations. Existingstudies on the correlation between economic cycle fluctuations and industrial structurechanges, to some degree, agree with the correlation between the two parts. Based on theresults of previous studies, this thesis make a further study on the correlation betweenthe economic cycle fluctuations and the industrial structure changes, and use China’sexperience and empirical data to explore in depth.Firstly, through previous research on correlation of economic cycle and industrialstructure changes, we find out that all relative researches are keeping up with theprocess of industrialization and structural evolution. On this basis, we summarize therelative theories of economic cycle and industrial structure changes. This thesis willfocus on the long-wave theory of the business cycle, economic cycle stage evolutiontheory and the theory of industrial structure.Secondly, based on the concept of the economic cycle fluctuations,we selectmeasurement indicators to measure the economic cycle fluctuations, and make divisionof the business cycle fluctuations in our country; while inductive concept of industrialstructure and its changes, as a measure to determine the basis of changes in theindustrial structure, then make a preliminary description of changes in the structure ofthree industries.Thirdly, we try to judge economic cycle fluctuations associated with changes in theindustrial structure of China from the macro-level.As the economic cycle is thecharacterization of economic growth, After the intuitively descriptive statistic analysison the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure changein China, this dissertation try to make a Granger causality test on China’s economiccycle fluctuation and industrial structure change, in using of establishing two indicators.Granger causality test showed that the economic cycle is a significant cause of China’sindustrial structure changes, meanwhile changes in the industrial structure has asignificant impact on economic cycle fluctuation.Finally, this thesis focus on the perspective of industry sectors, trying to analyze the correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure changes ofChina’s industrial sector. Based on the re-division of China’s industrial intern sector, wemeasure the industrial structure changes of China’s industrial intern sector. After make afurther discussion on the industrial structure change of China’s industrial intern sector atall previous business cycle stages,we further analyze the correlation between economiccycle changes and industrial structure changes of China’s industrial intern sectorthrough VAR model. We find out that structure changes in China’s basic industriessector, such as resource monopoly industry is a pre-signal of business cycle fluctuationsand structure changes in the food industry, textile industry and other major industrialsectors of consumer goods industry response lag the economic cycle fluctuations.Accordingly, this dissertation proposes with policy recommendations on economic cyclechanges in the industrial structure of China’s positive interaction.