The Study On Relationship Between Industrial Structure And Economic Cycle Of Hebei Province

Structural change and cyclical fluctuations are two basic forms of economic movement, socio-economic system grows and develops in structural change and cyclical fluctuations. In the long run, a country's economic development, not only is reflected in the growth of economic output, and accompanied by industrial growth. While the short term, these two issues become the volatility of economic aggregates and structure of short-term adjustment. In this paper, combining theoretical and empirical analysis of the form, and evidence-based method of analysis, I study the relationship between the structure of the industry in Hebei Province and the business cycle . The research paper is divided into four parts. The first part introduces the main topics of this article, the background and significance, as well as domestic and foreign economic scholars'current studying situation presented in this paper; the second part mainly introduces the theoretical analysis on the relationship between the industrial structure and business cycle fluctuations and the relevant theories; the third part of Hebei Province, fluctuations in industrial structure and the relationship between the economic cycle, which is the main part of this paper, through examples, the paper analyses the mutual relationship between industrial structure and economic cycles in Hebei Province .First of all, the relationship between the three industries of Hebei Province and the economic cycle changes is the visual analysis of volatility, and then unit root tests, Granger causality test, VAR model and impulse response function are used; the fourth part of the research finds strategy and the role of the Industrial Structure in the economic cycle and provides measures of economic development proposals of Hebei Province .