The Statistical Analysis Of The Interaction Between The Economic Development And Urbanization Of Chongqing

As the biggest municipality in China, the condition of economic development inChongqing will significantly affect the southwestern area or even the whole country.The largest difference among Chongqing and other municipalities as Beijing, Shanghaiand Tianjin is that most regions in Chongqing are mountainous, agricultural populationaccount for a large part in the whole population, and the urbanization level is laggedbehind the levels of other municipalities. To discuss whether there’s a close relationbetween the urbanization and economic development, and whether we can acceleratethe economic development by promoting urbanization, this article adopts the data onChongqing Statistics Year Book, and utilizes R and Eviews7.0software to process datato analyze the relation between the economic development and urbanization.This article discusses the urbanization and economic development form two angles,Chongqing municipality as a whole and four functional areas in Chongqing. The mainwork and results are as follow:1. This article adopted the urban population proportion and Per Capita GDPindexes to denote the urbanization and economic development level respectively, thetime period of data is1997-2012, and discussed the long term equilibrium relationbetween Chongqing’s urbanization and economic development as a whole. This articleadopts cointegration model, error correction model, Granger causality test and impulseresponse analysis to analyze the relation between the urban population proportion andPer Capita GDP indexes.2. While describes the new type of urbanization, this article adopts several kinds ofindexes, the time period of data is1997-2012, and processes principal componentanalysis by using R, and gets the principal component regression model, the result isthat the model successfully eliminates the multicollinearity among indexes and get therelation between new-type urbanization and economic development.3. To take the differences of geographical conditions and resources among districtsof Chongqing, this article divides the38districts of Chongqing into four functionalareas, and utilizes Eviews7.0software to discuss whether the relation of urbanizationand economic development will vary in different districts of economic developinglevels. This article establishes panel data models accordingly, and compares the differences of the interactions between urbanization and economic development in thosefour functional areas and then offers some advices.4. According to the principal component regression model, there do exist a longterm equilibrium relation urbanization and economic development, the positiveinteraction between them are very strong in a short time period. In terms of differencesamong districts, a higher Per Capita GDP are always accompanied by a higher urbanpopulation proportion, and in those districts with lagging economic development, thepositive impact which the increasing of urban population exerted on the economicdevelopment are bigger than in those developed regions, this results provide a furtherevidence of the close relation between economic development and urbanizationconstruction.