Research On Risk Measurement For Large-scale Equipment Development Project

Large-scale equipment development project is a kind of project which possesses some smallespecial characteristics and is significant for the social economy development and nationalsecurity.To these high risk projects, the quality of the implementation of risk management directlyaffects projects. Risk assessment is the key step of the project risk management process, and play veryimportant role in the project risk management. The risks are characterized as diversity, multi-lays,nonlinear,thus, the conventional risk assessment methods which divide the whole project risk intoindependent and step-by-step structure is not fit for the practice. So it is very important to study newrisk assessment methods to solve these large-scale complex projects.Firstly, we explore the complexity and risk occurrence mechanism of large-scale equipmentdevelopment project.We research on the relationships between project complexity and the projectrisk,by analysing risk source and composition dimension of large-scale equipment developmentproject. Then, building a multi-level milestones cooperation developing network systems(MMCD).Using this analytical framework,we can explore risk occurrence mechanism of large-scaleequipment development project.Secondly, in order to characterize the risk index of "event tree" milestone in the MMCD networksystem scientificly, we establish of a new risk game model, In this model, risk object player makestrategy choices based on the maximum entropy criterion, and technology subject palyer follow thestrategy of the risk object palyer, making strategy choices on the principle of maximizing the return.By analysing collaborative working logical relationship between "event tree" milestones subsystemand designing connecting nodes,we design a new risk index measure model,which can obtain theentire development project risk index by assembling all "event tree" milestone risk index.Finally, we establish risk level gray clustering model to classify risk index and design project risk"pedigree chart" to identify high risk milestones.Considered different levels of manufacturing chain processes,building a multi-level milestonescooperation developing network systems and risk index measure model of large-scale equipmentdevelopment project, which help determine the level of risk and provide a scientific basis for the riskcontrol.