| The research of trade effects of exchange rate volatility is always an important issue. Asa particular developing country, China’s exchange rate system reformed in July2005, whichmakes the RMB exchange rate changed from depreciation to appreciation. Farmers are stillthe majority population of China, so the agricultural trade has important strategic significancefor China’s economic development and social stability. Chinese RMB exchange rate changes,especially the RMB appreciation’s trade effect on agricultural product is worth exploring. Thestudy of this problem can make up for the existing studies which ignored the developingcountries. Based on this, this article attempts to study the effects of the RMB exchange ratevolatility on the volume of agricultural exports.On the basis of lots of literature review, this paper draws on the threshold model methodand bulid a model to research the relationship between RMB exchange rate volatility andagricultural exports volumn. This paper studies the bilital exports between China and its tenagricultural trade partners. According to the product’s charactors, models are divided into thetotal merchandise trade, agricultural products trade, as well as non-agricultural trade. In orderto explore the impact on different agricultural products, agricultural trade is further brokendown into seven sub-classes. The empirical result shows that the exchange rate system of theimporting country would impact the exchange rate trade effecs. The impact of exchange ratefluctuations on trade is different in agricultural products and non-agricultural products, thethreshold values and intervals are differences. Finally, the relevant suggestions are concluded. |
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