Analysis On The Credit Risks Of Supply Chain Financing Business By Commercial Banks

In addition to the risk from supply chain itself, the risks led by the characteristics ofsmall and medium-sized enterprises and under-developed supply chain financebusiness are still threatening the banks,and one of the main risks is credit risk. Withthe implementation of Basel Ⅲ in domestic and foreign banks, the banks are facingthe challenge in risk management, which requires commercial banks to use morescientific and advanced model to evaluate the risk of default and the prevention.Thepurpose of this study was to analyze the connotation and characteristics of the supplychain finance business and its business model,and to study the commercial banks’credit risk of supply chain finance business through Bayesian method.Firstly, this article introduces the connotation,character and financing models ofsupply chain finance business and then analyzes the development of supply chainfinance business in China. On the basis of these theory,the credit risk of supply chainfinance business for commercial banks are studied, in which the general researchmodels of supply chain finance are taken comparison.Then the Bayesian algorithm areintroduced, and the application of Bayesian algorithm proved the effectiveness ofBayesian algorithm.Then according to the characteristics of supply financial business,the comprehensive index system of credit risk are put forward.With the indexclassified processing for the sample data with79supply chains and the target supplychain, the default probability of the target enterprise and supply chain are digged outand its risk level are predicted according to the simple Bayesian algorithm.Finally,we put forward the corresponding advices about risk management and researchprospects of supply chain finance.