Research On The Financial Crisis Warning Model Of The Listed Companies About China’s Information Technology Industry

With the development of world economy, global economic integration degree isincreasing day after day, Enterprise of information technology in our country hasdeveloped rapidly. Global integration brought the opportunity to the enterprise, broughtchallenges to the enterprise at the same time. In the face of complex and changeableexternal environment, only set up a sound system of internal control and improve theaccuracy of decision, can make the enterprise impregnable. Establish financial earlywarning model, enterprise could find existing problems and promptly take effectivemeasures to avoid the outbreak of financial crisis and bankruptcy. Therefore, it has greatsignificance to build a reasonable financial crisis early warning system.Analysis the research status at home and abroad after read the reference of a largenumber of theoretical studies on financial cisis early warning. And the theory of thefinancial crisis are introduced. because the features of information technology industry ofhigh growth and high-risk, select CSI A-Share Listed Companies Information Technologyas a research object. Select102listed companies in information technology in2007-2013is specially treated as a sample, there are34ST treatment companies. According to themethod of unpaired sampling and the principle of during the same time, selected68non-ST companies randomly in2007-2011as a modeling sample data. The test samplesfrom2012-2013data. Firstly, selected21financial indicators preliminarily, carry out thedescriptive test and correlation test according to the characteristics of the data sample, the12financial indicators have been screened which significance is stronger. Simplified to5financial indicators after factor analysis, and doing empirical analysis. Fisher discriminantmodel and Logistic regression model have been estainblished and then doing empiricaltest. The result show that Logistic regression model is better than Fisher discriminantmodel in predict IT ST listed companies. The forecast ability of predict financial thelikelihood of the crisis by Logistic regression model is more accurately. It could helpmanagers to improve their enterprise management level, and for other stakeholders toprovide relevant information. The final conclution part carries on the summary to the fulltext.