Research On The Optimal Methods Of Our Country Argicultural Listed Company Financial Crisis Early Warning

Agriculture has always been the foundation of our national economy, and the construction of agriculture modernization plays an important role in promoting the economic development of our country. The State Council issued the Countrywide agriculture and rural economics the 12 th Five-Year Plan on Feb 13,2012, and issued the some opinions of the CPC Central Committee on deepening the reform of the rural areas and accelerating the modernization of Agriculture on Jan 19,2014. These policies reflect that our country attached great importance to the agricultural modernization, and these policies will have a positive impact on our country agricultural modernization. Agricultural listed company is the main force of agricultural modernization, and it has obvious characteristics of production and unique operating conditions. The development of agricultural listed company plays a certain role in promoting the economic development of our country.Finance is the center of the company’s operations, and listed companies will face financial risk and financial crisis.Whether the financial risk and financial crisis will hinder or promote the development of listed companies, it depends on financial risk and financial crisis early warning capability of listed companies. If company managers, investors,creditors can make appropriate financial crisis early warning analysis, and make correct business, investment and debt policy, it will promote development of listed companies, and listed companies will benefit from financial early warning. Therefore, we should pay attention to our country agricultural company financial crisis early warning, and make research on the optimal methods about it, so that it can make sure the virtuous cycle of the agricultural listed company’s financial condition, and it can ensure the healthy development of agricultural listed companies.There are five chapters in this paper. The first chapter is the exordium, which mostly expounds the background, purpose, and significance of this paper, and introduces the domestic and foreign literature review, and introduces the contents, methods and innovations of this paper. The second chapter is financial crisis early warning theory research, which mainly introduces the theory about financial crisis and financial early warning, and introduces the development status of agricultural listed companies, and introduces the financial risk characteristics of agricultural listed companies. The third chapter is the design of our country listed company financial crisis warning model, which mainly introduces the source of sample selection, and introduces the way of significant test.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of our agricultural listed company financial crisis early warning model.There are three parts about the fourth chapter. The first part is using existing financial crisis early warning methods-Z-model and F-model to analyze the effect of sample agricultural listed companies financial early warning,and analyze the advantage and weakness of the Z-model and F-model.And the second part is the optimization analysis of the financial early warning analysis,using factor analysis and logistic regression analysis to construct the financial crisis early warning model, and analyze the effect about it. And the third part is putting forward some suggestions about how to prevent financial crisis for agricultural listed companies.The fifth chapter is conclusions and recommendations, which mainly compares and analyzes the effect of the financial crisis early warning by Z-model, F-model and the model which optimized by logistic regression.This paper which takes agricultural listed companies as the sample source, and compares the domestic and international financial crisis early warning research, uses existing financial crisis early warning methods-Z-model and F-model to analyze the effect of sample agricultural listed companies financial crisis early warning. And the paper builds the financial crisis early warning model of agricultural industry by statistical methods and SPSS 19.0, and analyzes the effect of the model. At last, the paper compares and analyzes the effect of the financial crisis early warning by Z-model, F-model and the model which optimized by logistic regression. The result is that the logistic regression model is better than the Z-model and F-model, and it can provide certain reference to the optimal methods of our country agricultural listed company financial crisis early warning.