The Research Of China’s Manufacturing International Competitiveness Under Demographic Dividend Disappearing

Large of working-age population, low dependency ratio and a high savings rate which named as the Demographic dividend makes Chinese labor-intensive manufacturing industry as an important part in international market. However, the Demographic dividend will disappear. According to "World Population Prospects: The2010Revision", the Demographic dividend will reach its peak around the year2015, then it will gradually declined, until into "population debt", which means low working age population ratio, high dependency ratio as well as low savings rate. With China’s labor cost rapidly-rising, abundant cheap labor will not last forever, which has an adverse effect on the international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry. How to maintain and improve manufacture international competitiveness becomes an important issue that must be solved. We must grasp the tendency of manufacturing international competitiveness and the influence of the Demographic dividend to the manufacturing international competitiveness, so we can solve the problem under the background of disappearance of demographic dividend.The paper measures the dynamic evolution of industry international competitiveness, describes the change trend of demographic dividend, analysis the influence degree of demographic dividend to of manufacturing international competitiveness and puts forward some policy measures to upgrade manufacturing international competitiveness under the background of demographic dividend disappearing. This paper is made of5parts. In chapter1, the background and the worth of the research as well as the method used in this paper is presented. In chapter2, it mainly reviews the related literature home and abroad, which involves in three aspects. Firstly, it introduces the industry international competitiveness factors, evaluation methods and indexes as well as the related empirical results. Secondly, it presents the demographic dividend definition, duration, and its influence on industrial competitiveness. Thirdly, it makes a brief sum-up about the existing literature.The3rd chapter focuses on the dynamic evolution of manufacturing industry international competitiveness. By using index of MS, ECR, TC, RCA and CA, it calculates manufacturing international competitiveness comprehensive score in2000-2011by Factor Analysis (FA), which can illustrate the changing trends of manufacturing competitiveness. From the analysis, China’s manufacturing international competitiveness in the top ten are:4(textile industry),5(apparel, shoes and cap manufacturing),8(furniture manufacturing),11(cultural and educational sporting goods manufacturing industry),15(rubber products),17(nonmetal mineral products),20(fabricated metal products),24(electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing),25(electronic and communication equipment manufacturing),26(instrumentation and cultural office machinery manufacturing).The4th chapter analysis the impact of Demographic dividend and other factors on China’s manufacturing international competitiveness. After the Demographic dividend reaches its peak around2015, it will start to decline until it disappears. Then it uses the Generalized Least Square method (FGLS) to analysis the influence degree of Demographic dividend to China’s manufacturing international competitiveness. It shows that, Demographic dividend has different influence on labor-intensive industries and capital-technology intensive industries,40.77%and14.43%, respectively. From this, it shows that the labor-intensive industry’s international competitiveness is more dependent on the demographic dividend.Chapter5is the last part of the article. The author gives a full text summary and put forward some policy suggestions on how to maintain and upgrade the international competitiveness of manufacture in China.