Research On Construction Of Financial Crisis Warning Model Of State-owned Listed Companies

State-owned listed companies, which are on the road to continuous reform, need to face the outflow of state-owned assets, the imbalance of governance and lack in financial supervision. In support of national and international policy, state-owned listed companies need to raise the level of their financial warning to actively respond to market competition. This paper selects Logistic model as the method to build financial crisis warning model and adds corporate governance variables and macroeconomic variables to the basic model so as to improve the model effect. Based on statistical studies on warning model construction, this paper chooses company’s property and shareholding ratio as governance variables and GDP, CPI, monetary aggregates as macro-environmental variables.Macroeconomic indexes are expected to be inversely proportional to the company’s financial crisis, in other words, the better desirable macroeconomic environment indexes are, the less likely happens companies’financial crisis.This paper selects financial indicators, corporate governance variables and macro-environmental variables of qualified state-owned listed companies from2007to2010as study sample. Then it defines variables from the macro and micro aspects and builds the model. First, build basic financial crisis warning model with basic financial indicators and obtains working capital to total assets ratio, inventory turnover and fixed asset turnover by K-S test. Then, exclude variables that are not statistically significant and select the remaining22variables by Discriminant analysis. At last, carry on Factor analysis according to different corresponding level of statistical significance reflected in Lambda variance, attract6mian factors as variables to Logistic Regression analysis and successfully build the financial warning basic model M1. In contrast, add in corporate governance factors and macro environment factors and build financial warning basic model M2and M3with same steps. By comparative analysis of the three models, this paper comes to the following conclusions for financial crisis warning of state-owned listed companies. Firstly, cash flow, liquidity and operational capacity of state-owned listed companies play a key role in financial warning system; state-owned listed companies should strengthen the monitoring of these indicators. Secondly, the adding of corporate governance factors to financial warning basic model produces higher forecast accuracy rate, which indicates that state-owned listed companies are greatly affected by corporate governance factors.Of all the corporate governance factors selected the statistical effect of stake is not obvious, company attributes play a decisive role in corporate governance. Lastly, financial crisis of state-owned listed companies are inseparable with the macroeconomic environment. The reason why Consumer Price Index and financial situation of the state-owned listed companies have a strong correlation is that Consumer Price Index, microcosm of the national macro-control policies, is capable to objectively reflect the relative purchasing power of the entire society within a certain period.From above conclusions, this paper suggests that state-owned listed companies should conjunct with industry characteristics and development stage to improve financial warning system and be prudent in dealing with the financial crisis warning.Therefore, state-owned listed companies will successfully build diversified financial warning system to avoid excessive or neglect prevention derived from single virtue of historical data.