An Empirical Study On Financial Crisis Alert Of Agricultural Listed Companies

Agricultural enterprises are closely related to agricultural development,and the development of which can affect our national economic development directly,through hundreds of millions of farmers groups.As the agricultural modernization of China were late started and weak founded,a variety of problems exist in the development of agricultural enterprises,especially in financial management,which is less professional or scientific than other enterprises.Therefore,it is of great significance for China’s agricultural development and the whole national economic development to improve the financial management level of agricultural companies,especially agricultural listed companies,and to improve their financial situation and to ensure their sustainable development.Therefore,it has a strong practical significance to carry out financial crisis early warning research for agricultural enterprises from the perspective of accounting.Based on the traditional financial indicators and EVA indicators,this paper chooses to conduct Logistic empirical research on the basis of EVA index,and builds the financial crisis early warning model of agricultural listed companies.The daily accounting profit can not fully consider the cost of equity capital,thus this paper will use EVA instead of accounting profits,which can effectively make up for this problem.The article constructs 21 indicators,including growth ability,repayment ability and so on,among which the three indexes of net assets yield,sales net profit rate and total assets yield are modified by EVA.Based on this,the author selects 29 agricultural listed companies which had financial crisis in 2016 on the basis of the Logistic early warning model as the study samples,including two specially processed agricultural listed companies and 27 normal A class of agricultural listed companies.Meanwhile,the author chooses the financial data of 2012 for modeling,which was the first three years of the financial crisis in 2016,and the financial data of 2007 to 2011 for model testing.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:1.It is concluded that the revised rate of return on net assets has a significant effect on the financial status of agricultural listed companies,and the logistic regression model is formed by the revised return on net assets.2.Based on the financial warning model,the paper uses the financial data of 29 agricultural listed companies to calculate the probability of financial crisis P,and set 0.5 as the critical value.When P>0.5,there is a greater possibility of the enterprise financial crisis,while P <0.5 means that the possibility of corporate financial normal is great.3.The results show that the Logistic financial early warning model,which consists of the revised return on net assets,can effectively predict the possibility of financial crisis.And the prediction accuracy is negatively correlated with the time of special treatment.