A Study On Predicting Of Financial Crisis In Chinese Listed Companies

With the development of the Chinese stock market for more than ten years, our stock market has been growing rapidly and become an important part of our national economy. Listed companies are the cornerstone of the stock market. How to early warn the crisis of listed companies has become the focus that financial institutions, investors and government regulators pay close attention to. The special treatment (ST) system in the listed trading, which as a result of the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission deal with the listed companies of other unusual financial situation or the unusual circumstances, significantly impacts on the various stakeholders'decision-making.Based on the domestic and international research about the financial crisis early warning, this thesis reveals the financial crisis connotation of listed companies and the signal of a listed company losing into the financial crisis. In this thesis, financial crisis will be defined as being forced to special treatment because of the abnormal financial situation. We review empirical model of early warning about the financial crisis at home and abroad, with the characteristics of Chinese listed companies, then draw a conclusion that the Logistic regression analysis method is fit to establish empirical model. In the thesis, there are one-to-one samples that are the"ST"listed companies on 2007 and the normal listed companies the same as them in the fact of the industry, the size and the same period. Based on the samples, the early warning model of the listed company's financial crisis is founded. It is proved through the empirical research that Logistic regression analysis model in the use of the listed company's financial crisis early warning is accuracy and ideal. The last part of the thesis lists the limitations of research and makes recommendations about how to improve the follow-up study.