Economic Benefit And Sensitive Analysis On The Interplanting Models Of Poplar-edible Fungi In Yishui County

Agroforestry is also known as mixed agroforestry system. It has a long history, with theprogress of people production mode, the traditional way increased a lot of new contents,agroforestry has become the emerging and cross and borderline subject. Agroforestry is anintegrated approach of using the interactive benefits from combining trees and shrubs withcrops and/or livestock. It combines agricultural and forestry technologies to create morediverse, productive, profitable, healthy, and sustainable land-use systems. In the ecologicalsystem, upper trees and the lower of composite components have interconnectedness inecology and economics, the water and fertilizer conditions which undergrowth needs supplythe trees’ growth, and the crops and livestock use upper trees provide shade environment andformation of microclimate, in which the conditions can be favorable to life the mutualism,achieve a win-win goal.This paper takes the poplar-mushrooms different compound business modes in YishuiCounty, Shandong province as the research object through field investigation and datacollection for economic efficiency analysis, selection of input and output ratio, net presentvalue, internal rate of return of three economic evaluation index for the poplar fast-grownforest undergrowth and fungi breeding composite system to analyze economic benefitevaluation, using the sensitivity analysis of the different factors on the forest resourcesmanagement decision-making response sensitivity, so as to identify risk, managementcountermeasures are put forward. Through calculation and analysis, we can draw thefollowing conclusions:(1) According to results from the input-output ratio analysis: Eight different operatingmodes are A0（comparison）， B0（comparison），C0（comparison）， D0（comparison），A1，B1，C1，D1.The Input-output ratio of four complex business modes are significantlysmaller than the four control modes,10-year-old’s input-output ratio are more than8years old,the input-output ratio of the little canopy is greater than greenhouses.(2)From the results of the annual net present value analysis: Seeing from the four modes, economic efficiency and capital utilization rate of8-year-old business model of thegreenhouse complex is maximum, followed by10-year-old greenhouse complex businessmode, the net present value in the order of B1> D1> A1> C1> D0> C0> B0> A0.(3) Known by IRR method calculation:IRR of four composite business modes aresignificantly larger than the four control modes,8-year-old’s IRR are larger than the studentsof10years under the same conditions,The IRR of greenhouses and Little Canopy are littledifference in the same operating life.(4) The sensitivity analysis results are：①The economic and the discount rate, the costfactor changes in the same direction.②When the two factors changes in the magnitude of10%and30%,the two factors have great different influence on the degree of sensitivity ofeconomic,the sensitive degree of the cost is significantly greater than the discount rate, andthe sensitive degree of the cost is about2times the discount rate.③The cost sensitivity wassignificantly have more sensitive reflect to economic gains, the discount rate is relatively notobvious,and have small sensitive reaction for economic benefits.(5)By calculating the input-output ratio, net present value, IRR and sensitivity analysisfour kinds of evaluations to comparative analysis of eight different operating models.Theresults indicate that: The input-output ratio of the control groups are significantly larger thanthat of the agroforestry modes, however, the average annual NPV of the control group wassignificantly less than that of survey groups.Internal rate of return with the order of eightmodels is basically the same as the NPV with the order of eight models, the investigationteam of the agroforestry models have better investment returns. Changes in the cost havestrong impact for the economic in sensitivity analysis, therefore, improving cultivationtechniques, stable costs, determine sales are conductive to help stabilize revenue and yield.(6)Agroforestry still exists various problems at present, so relevant departments mustcarry on the correct guidance, avoid the blindness of forest planting, reduce the market risk ofthe products. Setting up plant-transportation-processing one-stop system, and increasing theadded value of agricultural products can not only solve the problem of market, but solve theemployment problem of local farmers, which can promote peasants’ income and have important meanings to develop the local economy.