An Empirical Analysis Of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate’s Impact On The Amount And Structure Of Chinese Import And Export Trade

In international trade,changes of exchange rate performs a pivotal role in one country’s import and export.As the trend of economic globalization becomes even more obvious,the open level of China economy is increasingly deepened,and dependence on foreign trade is going up. Therefore,the impact of RMB exchange rate on China’s foreign trade has become a key point in society.The international financial crisis exploded in2008and the EURO debt crisis it aroused destroyed our exotic environment badly,and it also had an odious influence on import and export’s situation.Consequently,Therefore,the study of RMB exchange rate’s impact on the amount and structure of Chinese import and export trade is very necessary.In this paper, we will use the quarterly data to study the effect of real effective exchange rate changes on the impact of amount of goods trade;we will adopt annual data to study the effect of real effective exchange rate changes on the impact of amount of service trade;we also study the effect of real effective exchange rate changes on the impact of structure of goods trade and the effect of real effective exchange rate changes on the impact of structure of service trade respectively.The result shows:(1)RMB effective exchange rate has a cointegration relationship with amount of trade on both of the import and export.(2)RMB effective exchange rate is the Granger cause of the amount of goods trade,but it isn’t the Granger cause of the amount of service trade.(3)RMB effective exchange rate and manufactured products trade structure exists cointegration relationship,but it doesn’t have a cointegration relationship with primary products trade structure.(4)RMB effective exchange rate has an unconspicuous effect on the structure of sevice trade unconspicuous.Finally,according to the conclusions,we propose some policy recommendations.