The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate's Fluctuation To Guangdong's Foreign Trade

With the development of global economic integration,the steady development of foreign trade has already become the important insurance of various countries and regional economic growth.As one of the important factors of influencing foreign trade,the exchange rate is playing an important role in the internal and external equilibrium and the fast growth of national economy.So,the impact of exchange rate movements on the foreign trade is a great subject of extensive research of international economics all the time.Since reform and opening policy,the foreign trade of Guangdong has developed very fast.Both the total amount of trade and foreign trade dependency are ranked the first place of China.In recent years,pairs of favorable balance has growth rapidly and inflation situation has not changed,the RMB exchange rate appears the rising trend of appreciation of the adverse effects of gradually reflected in Guangdong.In view of this,study the impact of exchange rate movements on the foreign trade of Guangdong,improve the foreign trade level of Guangdong,seems particularly urgent and essential.This paper along the theory-reality-real example thinking of practice,and regard studying in international trade as the foundation using the principles of finance,statistics,econometrics,Industry's economics synthetically, and take standardize research,statistical analysis,positive research,relatively study the research approach to start the research about it.This paper uses the ADF unit root test and the two-step method Engle-Granger co-integration analysis to carrying on real example analysis between the RMB exchange rate and the total amount of foreign trade of Guangdong also its structure. The positive research indicates,the appreciation of the exchange rate of RMB displays "J curve effect" in Guangdong,but the effect is not extraordinary;the exchange rate of RMB has effect to Guangdong's export structure.Finally the paper is from slowing the pace of RMB appreciation,optimizing the trade structure,reducing trade friction,improving foreign trade environment,and put forward the policy recommendations.